B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$260.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-02 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
TTWO
Take-Two Interactive SoftwareDNasdaq / Media & Entertainment
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
An on-time GTA VI launch, durable recurrent spending and delivery of fiscal 2027 bookings and cash-flow guidance could support a re-rating. The Xbox agreement maintains access to a major distribution platform, but disclosed terms do not demonstrate incremental economics.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +1.9.
What can break
Fiscal first-quarter net bookings fell 3% year over year and GAAP net loss widened to $34.1 million. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-07]
Momentum
24
Value
45
Sentiment
59
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $210.00 · Bull $260.00 · Bear $150.00Analysis 2026-10-02; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-02 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-23
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $294.88
Why
Momentum24 · Δ7d -0.3
Value45 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment59 · Δ7d +1.9
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +1.9.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Fiscal first-quarter net bookings fell 3% year over year and GAAP net loss widened to $34.1 million. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-07]
- • GTA VI timing, quality and uptake are unusually consequential to the fiscal 2027 outlook. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-07]
- • A launch delay, disappointing reception or weaker monetization would put the guidance and valuation at risk.
Catalyst clock
2026-11-19
Grand Theft Auto VI scheduled launch
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
24
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.3
Δ21d
+5.5
Value
45
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
-0.4
Sentiment
59
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
+1.9
Δ21d
-10.2
Why this grade
Composite grade D. Momentum 23.6 / Value 45.0 / Sentiment 58.9
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-02. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
55%
Probability
Target price
$210.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-02 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$150.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-02 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-23
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$38.09B
Beta
0.92
Shares Out
186.98M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-125.6
P/S (TTM)
7.64
P/FCF (TTM)
233.75
Rev YoY
+2.0%
EPS YoY
+178.3%
Gross Margin
+54.6%
Op Margin
-1.0%
Net Debt
$955.8M
Current Ratio
1.06
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data