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RBLX

RobloxD
NYSE / Media & Entertainment
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Strong revenue, engagement, operating cash flow, and free cash flow growth indicate durable platform scale and leave room for monetization recovery. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-30]
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -5.5.
What can break
Age-check and safety changes previously created communication and user-acquisition friction. [#SEC-8K-2026-04-30]
Momentum
8
Value
45
Sentiment
47
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $40.00 · Bull $54.20 · Bear $28.00Analysis 2026-08-04; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-04 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $47.75
Why
Momentum8 · Δ7d +2.3
Value45 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment47 · Δ7d -5.5
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -5.5.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Age-check and safety changes previously created communication and user-acquisition friction. [#SEC-8K-2026-04-30]
  • • Lower monetization among younger cohorts and a mix shift away from high-monetizing viral games may persist.
  • • The near-term setup has deteriorated: younger-user monetization weakened, discovery changes reduced dollars per hour, and Q3 bookings are guided down 14%-18% year over year.

Catalyst clock

2026-07-30

Q2 2026 results and Q3 guidance issued

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
8
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+2.3
Δ21d
+4.7
Value
45
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
+0.9
Sentiment
47
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-5.5
Δ21d
-18.9
Why this grade

Composite grade D. Momentum 7.5 / Value 44.9 / Sentiment 47.3

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-04. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$54.20
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$40.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
35%
Probability
Target price
$28.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$27.1B
Beta
1.64
Shares Out
714.38M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-24.6
P/S (TTM)
12.74
P/FCF (TTM)
48.77
Rev YoY
+35.9%
EPS YoY
-37.2%
Gross Margin
+25.7%
Op Margin
-20.7%
Net Debt
-$1.25B
Current Ratio
0.66
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data