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RBLX

RobloxF
NYSE / Media & Entertainment
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Strong revenue, engagement, operating cash flow, and free cash flow growth indicate durable platform scale and leave room for monetization recovery. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-30]
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-28.
What can break
Age-check and safety changes previously created communication and user-acquisition friction. [#SEC-8K-2026-04-30]
Momentum
90
Value
43
Sentiment
26
Setup hits (3d)
3 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $40.00 · Bull $54.20 · Bear $28.00Analysis 2026-08-04; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
2026-10-29 · AMC
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-27 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-27 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-04 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-27

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-27. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade F · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $50.53
Why
Momentum90 · Δ7d +11.6
Value43 · Δ7d -0.3
Sentiment26 · Δ7d -6.1
So what
Weak posture (Net Bullish). Prioritize risk control and patience.

Confirming evidence

  • • 3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-28.
  • • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-29 · AMC.
  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.3.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Age-check and safety changes previously created communication and user-acquisition friction. [#SEC-8K-2026-04-30]
  • • Lower monetization among younger cohorts and a mix shift away from high-monetizing viral games may persist.
  • • The near-term setup has deteriorated: younger-user monetization weakened, discovery changes reduced dollars per hour, and Q3 bookings are guided down 14%-18% year over year.

Catalyst clock

2026-10-29 · AMC

Q2 2026 results and Q3 guidance issued

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
90
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+11.6
Δ21d
+10.8
Value
43
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.3
Δ21d
-1.1
Sentiment
26
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-6.1
Δ21d
-23.7
Why this grade

Composite grade F. Momentum 89.6 / Value 42.5 / Sentiment 26.1

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-04. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$54.20
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$40.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
35%
Probability
Target price
$28.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-27
Market Cap
$38.91B
Beta
1.64
Shares Out
714.38M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-35.3
P/S (TTM)
12.74
P/FCF (TTM)
48.77
Rev YoY
+35.9%
EPS YoY
-37.2%
Gross Margin
+25.7%
Op Margin
-20.7%
Net Debt
-$1.25B
Current Ratio
0.66
As of 2026-10-27 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data