OZK

Rating buyAI Memo

Bank OZK

As of 2026-02-04/Confidence medium

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-02-04 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

buy

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Quarterly earnings and management guidance • 2026-05-05

Expected move: +10%

Biggest risk

Accelerating deposit costs or a prolonged rate easing cycle compresses NIM and forces higher provisions; weaker-than-expected CRE performance could push the stock toward the low analyst-bound.

Invalidation

Break below $40 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

OZK sustains NIM expansion and limited credit deterioration while executing modest loan growth; successful capital deployment or accretive M&A drives upside toward the high‑end of street targets.

Research note

Recommendation

buy

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-02-04

Base target

$53

p=60%

Bull target

$66

p=25%

Bear target

$40

p=15%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Quarterly earnings and management guidance
Net interest margin sensitivity to policy shifts
Portfolio repositioning or M&A execution

BearKey bullets

Credit deterioration in CRE-heavy loan book
Deposit outflows or higher wholesale funding costs
Execution risk on asset sales/M&A

WatchKey bullets

ANCHOR: {"price": 48.44, "timestamp_utc": "2026-02-02T00:00:00Z", "source": "rankalpha_api_adj_close"} ANALYST_TARGETS_REVIEWED: true Targets set off the ANCHOR price with a 12-month horizon; base (53.0) is aligned with analyst median (53.67) while bull (66.0) sits just below the reported analyst high (67.2) and bear (40.0) equals the reported analyst low (40.0).

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

buy

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $53 (p=60%)

Bull/Bear spread: +36% / -17%

Vs latest close: Bull +36% · Base +10% · Bear -17%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $66 (p=25%)Base Target: $53 (p=60%)Bear Target: $40 (p=15%)

Commentary

Sentiment is cautiously constructive: the median target sits above the anchor, implying modest upside while outliers push into the high-60s, reflecting optionality from portfolio moves [#SERP-3][#SERP-7]. Near-term focus is on NIM guidance and credit commentary; analyst stances remain mostly Buy/Overweight but hinge on execution and rate-path assumptions [#SERP-1].

As of 2026-02-04 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

OZK sustains NIM expansion and limited credit deterioration while executing modest loan growth; successful capital deployment or accretive M&A drives upside toward the high‑end of street targets.

Bear Case

Accelerating deposit costs or a prolonged rate easing cycle compresses NIM and forces higher provisions; weaker-than-expected CRE performance could push the stock toward the low analyst-bound.

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Quarterly earnings and management guidance
Net interest margin sensitivity to policy shifts
Portfolio repositioning or M&A execution

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-02-04Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$53.67

Range (USD)

$40.00 - $67.20

Count

Query: Bank OZK Common (OZK) analyst consensus price target high low average

What is the current Price Target and Forecast for Bank OZK (OZK)
Search result #1
The forecasts range from a low of $40.00 to a high of $62.00. The average price target represents an increase of 13.08% from the last closing price of $47.56.
Extracted: $40.00, $62.00, $47.56Open source
Bank OZK (OZK) Stock Price, News, Quote & History - Yahoo Finance
Search result #2
Bank OZK price target lowered to $54 from $56 at TD. Analyst Price Targets 40.00 Low 53.00 Average 49.11 Current 62.00 High Analyst. Lowering target price to $ ...
Extracted: $54.00, $56.00Open source
Bank OZK Analyst Estimates - MarketWatch
Search result #3
Target Price 53.00. Targets High $62.00 Median $52.50 Low $40.00 Average $53.00 Current Price $47.25 Yearly Numbers
Extracted: $62.00, $52.50, $40.00, $53.00, $47.25Open source
OZK Intrinsic Valuation and Fundamental Analysis - Bank Ozk
Search result #4
According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for OZK is 54.97 USD with a low forecast of 40.4 USD and a high forecast of 67.2 USD.
Extracted: $54.97, $40.40, $67.20Open source
Bank OZK: Target Price Consensus and Analysts Recommendations
Search result #5
Target on Bank OZK to $50 From $57, Average target price 53.00USD Spread / Average Target +9.41% High Price Target 62.00USD. Highest target +27.99% Low Price ...
Extracted: $50.00, $57.00, $53.00, $62.00Open source
Bank OZK (OZK) Stock Forecast: Analyst Ratings, Predictions ...
Search result #6
Bank OZK (OZK) has been analyzed by 8 analysts, with a consensus rating of Buy. 13% Wall Street analysts have set a price target of $55.38, reflecting a 0.00% ...
Extracted: $55.38Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$66 / p=25% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$53 / p=60% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$40 / p=15% prob

Price $48 as of 2026-05-28

Nearest Scenario: Base (∆ 10%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +36% · Base +10% · Bear -17%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Quarterly earnings and management guidance
2026-05-05
Next quarterly report will refresh EPS, NII and provision trends; market reaction likely if guidance diverges from consensus (analyst summaries show mixed targets) [#SERP-3][#SERP-1].
Prob 65% • Move 8% • Priced-in 40%
Net interest margin sensitivity to policy shifts
2026-05-05
NIM remains the dominant driver; an easing cycle or funding-cost compression could materially reduce margins and earnings per share [#SERP-1].
Prob 50% • Move -12% • Priced-in 30%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Portfolio repositioning or M&A execution
2027-02-04
Management has room to reprice assets or pursue strategic M&A/asset sales over a multi‑quarter horizon; successful execution could re-rate the shares [#SERP-7].
Prob 30% • Move 20% • Priced-in 15%

Risks

Credit deterioration in CRE-heavy loan book
Deposit outflows or higher wholesale funding costs
Execution risk on asset sales/M&A
NIM compression from Fed easing

Peers

Symbol	Summary
ZION	Large regional with similar CRE and commercial loan exposure; useful comparison for NIM and credit cycle sensitivity.
CMA	Mid-size regional focused on commercial lending; comparable funding profile and sensitivity to economic cycles.
CFR	Conservative regional franchise with strong deposit base; good comparator for capital/credit performance under stress.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: Bank OZK Common (OZK) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-02-04

AI Stock Memo: OZK - Bank OZK - RankAlpha