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OZK

Bank OZKB
Nasdaq / Banks
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The $1.50 Q3 EPS beat, record loans and deposits, falling RESG loan share, and stated 2027 growth goals support a recovery case if CIB growth absorbs real-estate payoffs without a credit setback. These are company results and expectations, not proof that the 2027 goals will be met.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -9.4.
What can break
CRE credit remains consequential: Q3 net charge-offs were $44.5 million, and a Boston life-science property transfer to foreclosed assets followed a $37.3 million charge-off. [#IR-OZK-Q3-2026-10-20] Bank OZK management comments
Momentum
42
Value
64
Sentiment
54
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $52.00 · Bull $59.00 · Bear $39.00Analysis 2026-10-23; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $53.78
Why
Momentum42 · Δ7d +12.0
Value64 · Δ7d -9.4
Sentiment54 · Δ7d +5.9
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -9.4.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • CRE credit remains consequential: Q3 net charge-offs were $44.5 million, and a Boston life-science property transfer to foreclosed assets followed a $37.3 million charge-off. [#IR-OZK-Q3-2026-10-20] Bank OZK management comments
  • • Deposit competition and subordinated-debt repricing pressure Q4 and 2027 net interest margin; management estimates the debt repricing alone will weigh on Q4 margin by 3 basis points. [#IR-OZK-Q3-2026-10-20] Bank OZK management comments
  • • Net income declined 9.0% year over year; management expects Q4 margin below Q1's 4.20% and warned that some CRE sponsors may stop supporting projects, leaving charge-offs elevated into 2027.

Catalyst clock

2027-01-31

Q3 earnings beat meets weaker forward margin outlook

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
42
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+12.0
Δ21d
+9.4
Value
64
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-9.4
Δ21d
-0.2
Sentiment
54
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+5.9
Δ21d
-24.2
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 41.9 / Value 64.2 / Sentiment 54.3

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-23. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$59.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-23 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$52.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-23 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$39.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-23 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$5.52B
Beta
0.94
Shares Out
109.17M
P/E (TTM)
7.6
P/S (TTM)
3.12
P/FCF (TTM)
11.32
Rev YoY
-3.8%
EPS YoY
-5.7%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
+32.3%
Net Debt
-$2.2B
Current Ratio
0.07
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data