AI Stock Memo: AUB - Atlantic Union Bankshares - RankAlpha

AUB

Rating buyAI Memo

Atlantic Union Bankshares

As of 2026-02-07/Confidence medium

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-02-07 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

buy

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Next quarterly earnings release • 2026-05-08

Expected move: +17%

Biggest risk

Weakening regional loan demand, margin compression, or a rise in credit losses could drive the stock toward the low end of analyst targets; limited liquidity or negative guidance would accelerate downside toward ~$34.

Invalidation

Break below $34 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Atlantic Union executes on loan growth and margin stability while maintaining credit quality; modest multiple expansion toward the high end of analyst targets (reflecting a $50 analyst high) leads to upside, particularly if share buybacks/dividends are continued.

Research note

Recommendation

buy

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-02-07

Base target

$44

p=60%

Bull target

$50

p=20%

Bear target

$34

p=20%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Next quarterly earnings release
Analyst target revisions / consensus updates
Regional M&A / strategic repositioning

BearKey bullets

Deal-related dilution or financing strain
Near-term earnings miss or weak guidance
Regional credit deterioration

WatchKey bullets

ANCHOR: {"price": 41.78, "timestamp_utc": "2026-02-06T00:00:00Z", "source": "rankalpha_api_adj_close"} RATING_COHERENCE_NOTE: Overall 'buy' reflects conviction in catalyst-driven upside (e.g., NIM stabilization, capital returns) and a preference to overweight event-driven rerating toward the bull case despite a modest probability-weighted expected price; numerical targets were not changed.

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

buy

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $44 (p=60%)

Bull/Bear spread: +33% / -10%

Vs latest close: Bull +33% · Base +17% · Bear -10%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $50 (p=20%)Base Target: $44 (p=60%)Bear Target: $34 (p=20%)

Commentary

Market consensus on AUB centers around a tight analyst target range with a median near $41.81, suggesting limited headline-driven upside absent positive surprises [#SERP-1]. Recent aggregator snapshots show variability in highs/lows (e.g., $34–$50), indicating analyst division on upside scenarios [#SERP-3]. Overall tone is cautious-to-neutral with upside tied to execution and macro stability [#SERP-8].

As of 2026-02-07 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Next quarterly earnings release
Analyst target revisions / consensus updates
Regional M&A / strategic repositioning

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-02-07Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$41.81

Range (USD)

$34.00 - $50.00

Count

Query: Atlantic Union Bankshares Corp Common (AUB) analyst consensus price target high low average

Atlantic Union Bankshares (AUB) Stock Forecast & Price Target
Search result #1
According to the 9 analysts' twelve-month price targets for Atlantic Union Bankshares, the average price target is $42.55. The highest price target for AUB is ...
Extracted: $42.55Open source
Union Bankshares (AUB) Stock Forecast & Price Target
Search result #2
According to projections from 8 analysts, the average 12-month price target for Atlantic Union is 42.4375, with a high estimate of 45 and a low estimate of ...
Open source
Atlantic Union (AUB) Price Targets - Zacks Investment Research
Search result #3
The forecasts range from a low of $40.00 to a high of $50.00. The average price target represents an increase of 8.06% from the last closing price of $41.18.
Extracted: $40.00, $50.00, $41.18Open source
Atlantic Union Bankshares Corporation (AUB) Stock Forecast, Price ...
Search result #4
The highest analyst price target is $47.50 ,the lowest forecast is $40.00. The average price target represents 7.46% Increase from the current price of $41.18. ...
Extracted: $47.50, $40.00, $41.18Open source
Atlantic Union Bankshares (NYSE:AUB) - Stock Analysis
Search result #5
Research Atlantic Union Bankshares' (NYSE:AUB) fundamentals, past performance, valuation, dividends and more.
Open source
AUB Stock Forecast: Analyst Ratings, Predictions & Price Target 2026
Search result #6
Wall Street analysts have set a price target of $41.81, reflecting a 0.00% increase from the current stock price. What is the 2026 price prediction for AUB?
Extracted: $41.81Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$50 / p=20% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$44 / p=60% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$34 / p=20% prob

Price $38 as of 2026-05-29

Nearest Scenario: Bear (∆ 10%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +33% · Base +17% · Bear -10%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Next quarterly earnings release
2026-05-08
Upcoming quarterly results and management commentary could move the stock; consensus/targets already closely clustered around current price, so surprises may create outsized near-term moves [#SERP-8], [#SERP-1].
Prob 65% • Move 8% • Priced-in 60%
Analyst target revisions / consensus updates
2026-05-08
Periodic analyst note revisions (median and mean targets are tightly clustered) can nudge sentiment and price; current consensus median near $41.81 suggests limited upside absent positive guidance [#SERP-1], [#SERP-8].
Prob 50% • Move 5% • Priced-in 50%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Regional M&A / strategic repositioning
2027-02-07
Over a 12-month horizon, industry consolidation or a strategic acquisition could materially re-rate Atlantic Union versus peers; outcome dependent on deal terms and financing conditions (assumed end-of-window date) [#SERP-3].
Prob 20% • Move 20% • Priced-in 10%

Risks

Deal-related dilution or financing strain
Near-term earnings miss or weak guidance
Regional credit deterioration

Peers

Symbol	Summary
TFC	Large regional bank with diversified commercial franchise; useful comparator for loan mix and fee income drivers.
PNC	National regional peer with broader geographic exposure; serves as a benchmark for capital allocation and scale benefits.
FITB	Mid-cap regional focused on consumer and commercial banking; comparable sensitivity to regional economic trends.
RF	Regionally diversified franchise with similar deposit base dynamics and interest-rate sensitivity.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: Atlantic Union Bankshares Corp Common (AUB) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-02-07