AI Stock Memo: ASB - Associated Banc-Corp - RankAlpha

ASB

Rating buyAI Memo

Associated Banc-Corp

As of 2026-01-23/Confidence high

Open ticker Back to Memos

Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-01-23 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

buy

Confidence

high

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Next quarterly earnings release • 2026-04-23

Expected move: -7%

Biggest risk

Deposit outflows or a jump in commercial real-estate losses compress margins and force higher credit reserves, leaving shares below current book/earnings expectations [#SERP-6].

Invalidation

Break below $25 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Improving deposit stability and sustained NII growth drive earnings above consensus, prompting multiple expansion toward larger regional peers [#SERP-3].

Research note

Recommendation

buy

Confidence

high

As of

2026-01-23

Base target

$29

p=60%

Bull target

$33

p=20%

Bear target

$25

p=20%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Regional funding/credit stress
Sustained NII expansion and credit normalization
Improving deposit stability and sustained NII growth drive earnings above consensus, prompting multiple expansion toward larger regional peers [#SERP-3].

BearKey bullets

Deposit flight or higher-cost funding
Regulatory or macro shock to regional banks
Unexpected rise in CRE or commercial loan losses

WatchKey bullets

Next quarterly earnings release

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

buy

Model confidence

high

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $29 (p=60%)

Bull/Bear spread: +5% / -20%

Vs latest close: Bull +5% · Base -7% · Bear -20%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $33 (p=20%)Base Target: $29 (p=60%)Bear Target: $25 (p=20%)

Commentary

Market consensus sits near a modestly positive median with mixed buy/hold signals from aggregators; coverage shows an average target slightly above the anchor [#SERP-2][#SERP-3]. Short-term headlines emphasize regional bank sensitivity to deposits and credit costs, creating near-term volatility risk [#SERP-6]. Longer-term tone is cautiously constructive if NII and credit trends remain favorable [#SERP-5].

As of 2026-01-23 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Improving deposit stability and sustained NII growth drive earnings above consensus, prompting multiple expansion toward larger regional peers [#SERP-3].

Bear Case

Deposit outflows or a jump in commercial real-estate losses compress margins and force higher credit reserves, leaving shares below current book/earnings expectations [#SERP-6].

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Regional funding/credit stress
Sustained NII expansion and credit normalization

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-01-23Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$29.25

Range (USD)

$26.15 - $32.00

Count

Query: Associated Banc-Corp Common (ASB) analyst consensus price target high low average

Associated Banc-Corp Consensus Estimates (ASB)
Search result #1
Associated Banc-Corp has a potential Upside of +14.13%, based on analysts' average price target. How Has Associated Banc-Corp Stock Performed Over the Past ...
Open source
Associated Banc-Corp (ASB) Stock Price, News, Quote & History
Search result #2
Analyst Price Targets. 27.00. 29.50 Average. 27.47 Current. 32.00 High. Analyst ... ASSOCIATED BANC-CORP has an Investment Rating of HOLD; a target price of ...
Open source
Associated Banc-Corp (ASB) Stock Forecast, Price ... - TipRanks
Search result #3
The average price target is $29.71 with a high forecast of $32.00 and a low forecast of $29.00. The average price target represents a 13.61% change from the ...
Extracted: $29.71, $32.00, $29.00Open source
Associated Banc-Corp: Target Price Consensus and Analysts ...
Search result #4
Spread / Average Target. +9.75% ; High Price Target. 31.00USD ; Spread / Highest target. +18.96% ; Low Price Target. 27.00USD ; Spread / Lowest Target. +3.61% ...
Extracted: $31.00, $27.00Open source
Associated Banc-Corp (ASB) Price Targets
Search result #5
The forecasts range from a low of $27.00 to a high of $32.00. The average price target represents an increase of 9.96% from the last closing price of $26.70.
Extracted: $27.00, $32.00, $26.70Open source
ASSOCIATED BANC-CORP (ASB) Stock Analyst Ratings - Chartmill
Search result #6
What is the average price target for ASSOCIATED BANC-CORP (ASB) stock? 14 analysts have analysed ASB and the average price target is 29.99 USD.
Extracted: $29.99Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$33 / p=20% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$29 / p=60% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$25 / p=20% prob

Price $31 as of 2026-07-17

Nearest Scenario: Bull (∆ 5%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +5% · Base -7% · Bear -20%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-04-23
Next quarterly earnings release
Q4 / full-year results will reprice expectations for loan growth, NII, and credit costs; exact date not disclosed — assumed next scheduled quarter close (conservative end-of-window used) [#SERP-2].
Prob 70.00% • Move 8.00% • Priced-in 40.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Regional funding/credit stress
2026-04-23
Localized deposit reallocation or uptick in commercial loan delinquencies could drive downside volatility; market commentary highlights continued watch on regional banks [#SERP-6].
Prob 25% • Move 12% • Priced-in 60%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Sustained NII expansion and credit normalization
2027-01-23
If net interest income sustains improvement while credit costs normalize, valuation rerating toward peers is possible over the year [#SERP-3].
Prob 40% • Move 25% • Priced-in 20%

Risks

Deposit flight or higher-cost funding
Regulatory or macro shock to regional banks
Unexpected rise in CRE or commercial loan losses

Peers

Symbol	Summary
PNC	Larger regional with diversified fee streams; useful comparator for credit cycle exposure.
FITB	Mid-sized Midwest peer with similar deposit mix and sensitivity to NII trends.
KEY	Comparable regional footprint and commercial-lending exposure; serves as credit-performance benchmark.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: Associated Banc-Corp Common (ASB) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-01-23