MRCY
Rating buyAI MemoMercury
As of 2026-02-04/Confidence high
Data freshness
AI Memo
As of 2026-02-04 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Decision Panel
Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.
Action
buy
Confidence
high
Horizon
—
Key catalyst
Quarterly consensus updates / guidance • 2026-05-05
Base target: $95 / p=60% prob
Biggest risk
Program delays, booking shortfalls or margin pressure lead to downward revisions and re‑rating toward lower analyst scenarios and the bear target.
Invalidation
Break below $55 or thesis failure.
What would change my mind?
Continued program wins, accelerating product ramps and margin expansion drive revenue growth and multiple re‑rating toward the analyst high, supporting upside to the bull target.
Research note
Recommendation
buy
Confidence
high
As of
2026-02-04
Base target
$95
p=60%
Bull target
$120
p=25%
Bear target
$55
p=15%
Key bullets
Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items
BullKey bullets
- Analyst revisions and sentiment re-rate
- Defense program awards and product ramp
- Continued program wins, accelerating product ramps and margin expansion drive revenue growth and multiple re‑rating toward the analyst high, supporting upside to the bull target.
BearKey bullets
- Execution or supply‑chain issues compressing margins
- Program award delays or cancellations
- Sharp analyst downgrades or target compression after weak guidance
WatchKey bullets
- Quarterly consensus updates / guidance
Summary
High-level snapshot
Recommendation
buy
Model confidence
high
Timeframe
-
Asset
Equity
Trigger
-
Base case: $95 (p=60%)
Target spread vs base: +26% / -42%
Scenario probabilities
Bull Target: $120 (p=25%)Base Target: $95 (p=60%)Bear Target: $55 (p=15%)
Commentary
Sentiment is cautiously constructive after recent analyst target lifts; consensus median near $95 supports upside narratives while dispersion (highs to $120, lows to the $50s) maintains execution‑sensitivity [#SERP-8][#SERP-3]. Short-term moves will track earnings and any disclosed contract awards.
As of 2026-02-04 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology
Analyst Summary
Thesis highlights from the latest analysis
Bull Case
Continued program wins, accelerating product ramps and margin expansion drive revenue growth and multiple re‑rating toward the analyst high, supporting upside to the bull target.
Bear Case
Program delays, booking shortfalls or margin pressure lead to downward revisions and re‑rating toward lower analyst scenarios and the bear target.
Drivers
Scannable catalysts and supporting factors
- Analyst revisions and sentiment re-rate
- Defense program awards and product ramp
Human Analyst Targets
External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.
Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-02-04Source quality: external scrape
External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.
Inline RA est
Provider
serper
Median (USD)
$95.00
Range (USD)
$49.49 - $120.00
Count
17
Query: Mercury Systems Inc Common (MRCY) analyst consensus price target high low average
- Mercury Systems, Inc. (MRCY) Stock Price, News, Quote & HistorySearch result #1MERCURY SYSTEMS INC has an Investment Rating of HOLD; a target price of $106.000000; an Industry Subrating of Medium; a Management Subrating of Low; a Safety ...Extracted: $106.00Open source
- Mercury Systems, Inc.: Target Price Consensus and Analysts ...Search result #2Truist Raises Price Target on Mercury Systems to $102 From $100, Keeps Buy Rating · RBC Capital Adjusts Mercury Systems Price Target to $95 From $90, Maintains ...Extracted: $102.00, $100.00, $95.00, $90.00Open source
- Mercury Systems (MRCY) Stock Forecast & Price Target - MarketBeatSearch result #3According to the 9 analysts' twelve-month price targets for Mercury Systems, the average price target is $83.25. The highest price target for MRCY is $102.00, ...Extracted: $83.25, $102.00Open source
- Mercury (MRCY) Stock Forecast & Price Target - Investing.comSearch result #4According to projections from 8 analysts, the average 12-month price target for Mercury is 90.88, with a high estimate of 120 and a low estimate of 55.
- Mercury Systems Inc (MRCY) Stock Forecast, Price Targets and ...Search result #5The average price target is $79.25 with a high forecast of $102.00 and a low forecast of $55.00. The average price target represents a -20.18% change from the ...Extracted: $79.25, $102.00, $55.00Open source
- Price Target & Analyst Coverage - Mercury Systems (MRCY) - MLQ.aiSearch result #6The consensus 12-month price target for Mercury Systems (MRCY) is $95.75, based on analyst estimates. The highest price target is $100.00, while the lowest is ...Extracted: $95.75, $100.00Open source
Scenarios
Bull Target (Scenario probability)
$120 / p=25% prob
Base Target (Scenario probability)
$95 / p=60% prob
Bear Target (Scenario probability)
$55 / p=15% prob
Analysis 2026-02-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Analysis reference price unavailable. Targets are shown without scenario returns.
Sentiment & Exposure
Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage
Events
Other notable items detected
- EVENT2026-05-05Quarterly consensus updates / guidanceQuarterly results and management guidance typically drive re‑rating; we assume a near‑term consensus update window for market reaction [#SERP-3][#SERP-2].Prob 35.00% • Move 18.00% • Priced-in 25.00%
Short-term Catalysts
Next few weeks
- Analyst revisions and sentiment re-rate2026-05-05Recent analyst upgrades and target raises can lift near-term sentiment; Truist’s recent action increases the chance of follow-on revisions and short-term repricing [#SERP-8][#SERP-3].Prob 35% • Move 25% • Priced-in 30%
Long-term Catalysts
Months to a year
- Defense program awards and product ramp2027-02-04Execution on multi‑year DoD programs and successful product ramps can materially expand backlog and margins, supporting higher multiples over 12+ months [#SERP-3].Prob 30% • Move 40% • Priced-in 20%
Risks
- Execution or supply‑chain issues compressing margins
- Program award delays or cancellations
- Sharp analyst downgrades or target compression after weak guidance
Peers
| Symbol | Summary |
|---|---|
| KTOS | Smaller defense systems supplier; relevant for growth/scale tradeoffs and program-volatility comparison. |
| LHX | Large defense electronics and avionics prime; comparable program exposure and integration dynamics. |
| NOC | Prime contractor with broad systems footprint; useful for program-timing and prime-level backlog context. |
| TDY | Sensor/instrumentation peer with similar high-reliability hardware cycles and product ramp considerations. |
Sources
Internal and external references used in this analysis
- Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
- Human targets: serper
- Targets query: Mercury Systems Inc Common (MRCY) analyst consensus price target high low average
- Analysis date: 2026-02-04