LHX

TentativeAI Memo

L3Harris

As of 2026-09-30/Confidence high/Horizon 6‑12m

Open ticker Back to Memos

Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-09-30 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Report quality notice

peer set is too generic or lacks enough direct operating comparators

Action

—

Confidence

high

Horizon

6‑12m

Key catalyst

PAC-3 MSE propulsion award • 2026-09-08

Base target: $250 / p=50% prob

Biggest risk

Both September awards are undefinitized, the THAAD award was described as consistent with prior expectations, and full realization depends on funding and factory execution. The August CEO change adds an execution-monitoring risk. [#PR-THAAD-2026-09-29] L3Harris THAAD release [#8-K-2026-08-17]

Invalidation

Break below $190 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

The THAAD and PAC-3 awards add multi-year production visibility to the $42 billion Q2 backlog; successful capacity expansion and conversion could support upside. [#PR-THAAD-2026-09-29] L3Harris THAAD release [#SEC-8K-2026-07-29]

Research note

Recommendation

—

Confidence

high

As of

2026-09-30

Base target

$250

p=50%

Bull target

$285

p=30%

Bear target

$190

p=20%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

2026 guidance and backlog conversion
PAC-3 capacity ramp
The THAAD and PAC-3 awards add multi-year production visibility to the $42 billion Q2 backlog; successful capacity expansion and conversion could support upside.

BearKey bullets

Continued funding is required to realize the full stated THAAD contract value; both major September awards are undefinitized.
Contract headlines may overstate incremental upside because L3Harris described the THAAD and PAC-3 awards as consistent with previously announced expectations.
New missile-propulsion facilities and planned output increases carry commissioning, supply-chain, margin and cash-conversion risk.

WatchKey bullets

PAC-3 MSE propulsion award

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

Model confidence

high

Timeframe

6‑12m

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $250 (p=50%)

Target spread vs base: +14% / -24%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $285 (p=30%)Base Target: $250 (p=50%)Bear Target: $190 (p=20%)

Commentary

September contract headlines are positive, while the August leadership change and undefinitized, previously anticipated awards temper the signal. The supplied September 29 anchor is $236.47; a contract-specific market reaction has not been verified. Social sentiment, options skew, short interest and employee ratings are unavailable—the zero fields are placeholders, not observations. Analyst target revisions are also unavailable.

As of 2026-09-30 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

2026 guidance and backlog conversion
PAC-3 capacity ramp

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$285 / p=30% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$250 / p=50% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$190 / p=20% prob

Analysis 2026-09-30 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Analysis reference price unavailable. Targets are shown without scenario returns.

Sentiment & Exposure

News Sentiment (30d)

0.45

Social Sentiment (7d)

0.00

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-09-08
PAC-3 MSE propulsion award
L3Harris announced a $4.7 billion, seven-year undefinitized Lockheed Martin award for PAC-3 MSE propulsion. The award strengthens production visibility, subject to funding and execution. [#PR-PAC3-2026-09-08] L3Harris release
Prob 100.00% • Move 2.00% • Priced-in 85.00%
EVENT2026-09-29
THAAD propulsion award
L3Harris announced an undefinitized Lockheed Martin contract valued at more than $6 billion, excluding escalations, over seven years. It supports expanded THAAD propulsion production, but the company says the award is consistent with previously announced program expectations and cautions that full value depends on continued funding. [#PR-THAAD-2026-09-29] L3Harris release
Prob 100.00% • Move 3.00% • Priced-in 65.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

No short-term catalysts

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

2026 guidance and backlog conversion
2026-12-31
Q2 orders of $7.3 billion lifted backlog to $42 billion, and L3Harris raised 2026 revenue guidance to $23.2–$23.7 billion and diluted EPS guidance to $11.80–$12.00. Delivery, margins and cash conversion against that outlook remain the operating test. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-29] SEC earnings exhibit
Prob 70% • Move 7% • Priced-in 55%
PAC-3 capacity ramp
2027-12-31
Two Camden, Arkansas, PAC-3 MSE facilities are expected to become operational in 2027. Commissioning and throughput will test whether contract value converts into deliveries and cash flow. [#PR-PAC3-2026-09-08] L3Harris release
Prob 70% • Move 8% • Priced-in 45%

Risks

Continued funding is required to realize the full stated THAAD contract value; both major September awards are undefinitized.
Contract headlines may overstate incremental upside because L3Harris described the THAAD and PAC-3 awards as consistent with previously announced expectations.
New missile-propulsion facilities and planned output increases carry commissioning, supply-chain, margin and cash-conversion risk.
The August CEO transition may complicate assessment of execution continuity despite the company's reaffirmation of its 2026 outlook. [#8-K-2026-08-17]

Peers

Symbol	Summary
GD	L3Harris expressly lists General Dynamics among its principal large-defense competitors. It is a defense operating comparator, not evidence of identical missile-propulsion exposure. [#10-K-2026-02-12] L3Harris annual filing
LMT	Direct defense peer named in L3Harris's 2025 annual report and a verified competitor in Lockheed Martin's January 2026 filing. Lockheed is also the counterparty to the specific THAAD and PAC-3 awards; the competition observation alone establishes no product-wide exposure. [#10-K-2026-02-12] L3Harris annual filing [#REL-d6d91ec1-f56d-4058-b7d5-645747ee693e] Lockheed filing
NOC	Direct defense peer named in L3Harris's 2025 annual report. Northrop's January 2026 filing also names L3Harris as a competitor in defense, intelligence and federal civil markets, but the relationship record remains uncertain and measures neither product overlap nor exposure. [#10-K-2026-02-12] L3Harris annual filing [#REL-5201d306-b0eb-412b-984f-11d281c3eefb] Northrop filing
RTX	L3Harris expressly lists RTX among its principal large-defense competitors, making it a more relevant aerospace-and-defense comparator than same-sector industrial names. The filing does not establish identical program mix or valuation. [#10-K-2026-02-12] L3Harris annual filing

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Analysis date: 2026-09-30

Loading AI feed…

Symbol

Summary

L3Harris expressly lists General Dynamics among its principal large-defense competitors. It is a defense operating comparator, not evidence of identical missile-propulsion exposure. [#10-K-2026-02-12] L3Harris annual filing

LMT

Direct defense peer named in L3Harris's 2025 annual report and a verified competitor in Lockheed Martin's January 2026 filing. Lockheed is also the counterparty to the specific THAAD and PAC-3 awards; the competition observation alone establishes no product-wide exposure. [#10-K-2026-02-12] L3Harris annual filing [#REL-d6d91ec1-f56d-4058-b7d5-645747ee693e] Lockheed filing

NOC

Direct defense peer named in L3Harris's 2025 annual report. Northrop's January 2026 filing also names L3Harris as a competitor in defense, intelligence and federal civil markets, but the relationship record remains uncertain and measures neither product overlap nor exposure. [#10-K-2026-02-12] L3Harris annual filing [#REL-5201d306-b0eb-412b-984f-11d281c3eefb] Northrop filing

RTX

L3Harris expressly lists RTX among its principal large-defense competitors, making it a more relevant aerospace-and-defense comparator than same-sector industrial names. The filing does not establish identical program mix or valuation. [#10-K-2026-02-12] L3Harris annual filing