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MRCY

MercuryB
Nasdaq / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Continued program wins, accelerating product ramps and margin expansion drive revenue growth and multiple re‑rating toward the analyst high, supporting upside to the bull target.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +6.2.
What can break
Execution or supply‑chain issues compressing margins
Momentum
12
Value
44
Sentiment
85
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $95.00 · Bull $120.00 · Bear $55.00Analysis 2026-02-04; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-18 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-10 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-02-04 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-10

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-10. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $116.40
Why
Momentum12 · Δ7d +1.8
Value44 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment85 · Δ7d +6.2
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +6.2.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Execution or supply‑chain issues compressing margins
  • • Program award delays or cancellations
  • • Program delays, booking shortfalls or margin pressure lead to downward revisions and re‑rating toward lower analyst scenarios and the bear target.

Catalyst clock

2026-05-05

Quarterly consensus updates / guidance

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
12
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+1.8
Δ21d
-47.6
Value
44
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
+0.6
Sentiment
85
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+6.2
Δ21d
+28.9
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 12.1 / Value 44.0 / Sentiment 84.5

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-02-04. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$120.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Most likely
B
Base case
60%
Probability
Target price
$95.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
15%
Probability
Target price
$55.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-18
Market Cap
$6.81B
Beta
0.75
Shares Out
60.04M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-227.2
P/S (TTM)
5.24
P/FCF (TTM)
36.03
Rev YoY
+6.1%
EPS YoY
-95.3%
Gross Margin
+24.6%
Op Margin
+2.1%
Net Debt
$286.61M
Current Ratio
2.96
As of 2026-09-10 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data