AI Stock Memo: MCFT - Mastercraft Boat - RankAlpha

MCFT

Rating sellAI Memo

Mastercraft Boat

As of 2026-02-10/Confidence medium

Open ticker Back to Memos

Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-02-10 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

sell

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Analyst target revisions and coverage updates • 2026-05-11

Expected move: -3%

Biggest risk

Bear case assumes a weak spring selling season, inventory destocking at dealers, or margin contraction from input-cost pressure — outcomes that could drive the shares toward mid-to-high teens.

Invalidation

Break below $15 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Bull case assumes above-consensus seasonality, successful new-model introductions, and margin recovery that pushes consensus toward the high-$20s; that scenario supports the bull target near the current analyst high.

Research note

Recommendation

sell

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-02-10

Base target

$23

p=60%

Bull target

$28

p=20%

Bear target

$15

p=20%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Next quarterly earnings release (estimated)
Seasonal spring/summer retail demand cycle
Bull case assumes above-consensus seasonality, successful new-model introductions, and margin recovery that pushes consensus toward the high-$20s; that scenario supports the bull target near the current analyst high.

BearKey bullets

Cyclical discretionary demand drop/weak spring season
Dealer inventory destocking or weaker retail financing availability
Input-cost or supply-chain issues that compress margins

WatchKey bullets

Analyst target revisions and coverage updates

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

sell

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $23 (p=60%)

Bull/Bear spread: +17% / -38%

Vs latest close: Bull +17% · Base -3% · Bear -38%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $28 (p=20%)Base Target: $23 (p=60%)Bear Target: $15 (p=20%)

Commentary

Analyst consensus clusters in the low-to-mid $20s with a modest skew toward 'hold' opinions; recent aggregates show a median ~23.4 and a high near $28, signaling limited upside from the current anchor [#SERP-4][#SERP-6]. Market commentary emphasizes seasonal demand and dealer inventories as primary drivers in the near term [#SERP-1].

As of 2026-02-10 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Bear case assumes a weak spring selling season, inventory destocking at dealers, or margin contraction from input-cost pressure — outcomes that could drive the shares toward mid-to-high teens.

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Next quarterly earnings release (estimated)
Seasonal spring/summer retail demand cycle

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-02-10Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$23.40

Range (USD)

$6.54 - $28.00

Count

Query: Mastercraft Boat Holdings Inc Common (MCFT) analyst consensus price target high low average

Mastercraft Boat (MCFT) Stock Forecast & Price Target - Investing.com
Search result #1
According to projections from 5 analysts, the average 12-month price target for Mastercraft Boat is 22.80, with a high estimate of 25 and a low estimate of ...
Open source
MasterCraft Boat Holdings, Inc. (MCFT) Price Targets
Search result #2
The forecasts for MASTERCRAFT BOAT HOLDINGS, INC. (MCFT) range from a low of $21 to a high of $25. The average price target represents a decline of $6.54 from ...
Extracted: $21.00, $25.00, $6.54Open source
MCFT Stock Forecast - Mastercraft Boat Holdings Inc - Alpha Spread
Search result #3
Wall Street analysts forecast MCFT stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for MCFT ...
Open source
Mastercraft Boat (MCFT) Stock Forecast & Price Target - MarketBeat
Search result #4
According to the 8 analysts' twelve-month price targets for Mastercraft Boat, the average price target is $23.33. The highest price target for MCFT is $28.00, ...
Extracted: $23.33, $28.00Open source
MasterCraft Boat Holdings, Inc. (MCFT) Stock Price, News, Quote ...
Search result #5
Find the latest MasterCraft Boat Holdings, Inc. (MCFT) stock quote, history, news and other vital information to help you with your stock trading and ...
Open source
Consensus MasterCraft Boat Holdings, Inc. - MarketScreener
Search result #6
Analysts' Consensus ; Mean consensus. HOLD ; Number of Analysts. 7 ; Last Close Price. 25.17USD ; Average target price. 25.00USD ; Spread / Average Target. -0.68%.
Extracted: $25.17, $25.00Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$28 / p=20% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$23 / p=60% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$15 / p=20% prob

Price $24 as of 2026-05-28

Nearest Scenario: Base (∆ 3%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +17% · Base -3% · Bear -38%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-05-11
Analyst target revisions and coverage updates
Brokerage updates (upgrades/downgrades) and revisions to 12-month targets by the small coverage set often move retail sentiment and price; timing concentrated around earnings and seasonal reports — assumed next 90-day window end for planning purposes [#SERP-2][#SERP-6].
Prob 45.00% • Move 10.00% • Priced-in 50.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Next quarterly earnings release (estimated)
2026-05-11
Upcoming quarterly earnings and guidance update; results/guidance surprise could move the stock materially (assumed timing in absence of a published date) [#SERP-4][#SERP-2].
Prob 40% • Move 8% • Priced-in 60%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Seasonal spring/summer retail demand cycle
2027-02-10
Spring buying season and dealer inventories typically boost shipments and margins for boat OEMs; a strong season can validate higher targets while a weak season pressures revenue [#SERP-1][#SERP-4].
Prob 60% • Move 25% • Priced-in 40%

Risks

Cyclical discretionary demand drop/weak spring season
Dealer inventory destocking or weaker retail financing availability
Input-cost or supply-chain issues that compress margins

Peers

Symbol	Summary
BC	Brunswick: large, diversified marine OEM and dealer with broader scale — useful comp for market-share and supply-chain dynamics.
MBUU	Malibu Boats: direct competitor in fiberglass performance boats; product cycle and retail demand trends are comparable.
HZO	MarineMax: leading dealer/retailer; a barometer for end‑customer demand and trade activity in the boat market.
MPX	Marine Products Corp: smaller OEM with overlapping retail channels and exposure to seasonal demand shifts.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: Mastercraft Boat Holdings Inc Common (MCFT) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-02-10