HZO

Rating buyAI Memo

MarineMax

As of 2026-01-30/Confidence medium

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-01-30 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

buy

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Fiscal Q1 / quarterly earnings release • 2026-04-30

Expected move: -17%

Biggest risk

Weaker-than-expected consumer discretionary spending, tighter marine financing, or inventory markdowns compress margins and cash flow, pushing the stock toward the bear target. Execution missteps on cost control or higher interest rates amplify downside risks.

Invalidation

Break below $22 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Stronger-than-expected spring retail demand, improved margins from inventory and financing mixes, and successful sales programs drive upside to the bull target. Positive macro and financing conditions accelerate dealer inventory turn and cash conversion.

Research note

Recommendation

buy

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-01-30

Base target

$29

p=55%

Bull target

$36

p=25%

Bear target

$22

p=20%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Strategic expansion or financing initiative (long-term growth)
Stronger-than-expected spring retail demand, improved margins from inventory and financing mixes, and successful sales programs drive upside to the bull target.
Positive macro and financing conditions accelerate dealer inventory turn and cash conversion.

BearKey bullets

Cyclical drop in discretionary boating demand
Dealer inventory gluts forcing markdowns and margin erosion
Higher interest rates / reduced consumer financing availability

WatchKey bullets

Fiscal Q1 / quarterly earnings release

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

buy

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $29 (p=55%)

Bull/Bear spread: +2% / -37%

Vs latest close: Bull +2% · Base -17% · Bear -37%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $36 (p=25%)Base Target: $29 (p=55%)Bear Target: $22 (p=20%)

Commentary

Analyst consensus is cautiously constructive: a clustered median in the high-$20s supports the base case while a subset of firms holds materially higher highs, highlighting expectation dispersion [#SERP-2][#SERP-5]. Company headlines show mixed results (revenue beats with margin pressure), leaving sentiment balanced between recovery upside and execution risk [#SERP-1]. Near-term investor focus is on spring selling-season trends and consumer financing availability as the primary sentiment drivers [#SERP-4].

As of 2026-01-30 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Strategic expansion or financing initiative (long-term growth)

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-01-30Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$29.25

Range (USD)

$24.08 - $46.00

Count

Query: MarineMax Inc Common (HZO) analyst consensus price target high low average

MarineMax, Inc. (HZO) Stock Price, News, Quote & History
Search result #1
MarineMax (HZO) Reports Q1 Loss, Beats Revenue Estimates. Zacks • 1d ago ... Analyst Insights: HZO. View More. Analyst Price Targets. 29.00. 31.67 Average.
Open source
Marinemax (HZO) Stock Forecast, Price Targets and Analysts ...
Search result #2
The average price target is $32.00 with a high forecast of $35.00 and a low forecast of $29.00. The average price target represents a 13.60% change from the ...
Extracted: $32.00, $35.00, $29.00Open source
MarineMax, Inc.: Target Price Consensus and Analysts ...
Search result #3
Analysts' Consensus ; Mean consensus. BUY ; Number of Analysts. 9 ; Last Close Price. 28.82USD ; Average target price. 30.71USD ; Spread / Average Target. +6.57%.
Extracted: $28.82, $30.71Open source
MarineMax (HZO) Stock Forecast and Price Target 2026 - MarketBeat
Search result #4
The highest price target for HZO is $32.00, while the lowest price target for HZO is $29.00. The average price target represents a forecasted upside of 11.70% ...
Extracted: $32.00, $29.00Open source
MarineMax Inc. Analyst Estimates - HZO - MarketWatch
Search result #5
Stock Price Targets. High, $35.00. Median, $29.50. Low, $27.00. Average, $30.63. Current Price, $24.08. Yearly Numbers. Estimates. HZO will report 2026 earnings ...
Extracted: $35.00, $29.50, $27.00, $30.63, $24.08Open source
MarineMax Analyst Ratings and Price Targets | NYSE:HZO - Benzinga
Search result #6
MarineMax Inc has a consensus price target of $37.13 based on the ratings of 9 analysts. The high is $46 issued by B. Riley Securities on July 10, 2024.
Extracted: $37.13, $46.00Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$36 / p=25% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$29 / p=55% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$22 / p=20% prob

Price $35 as of 2026-05-28

Nearest Scenario: Bull (∆ 2%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +2% · Base -17% · Bear -37%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-04-30
Fiscal Q1 / quarterly earnings release
Upcoming quarterly results may show margin pressure or recovery in retail boat sales; date not disclosed publicly so conservatively assumed at quarter-end (assumption: company will report within 90 days) [#SERP-1].
Prob 65.00% • Move 6.00% • Priced-in 30.00%
EVENT2026-06-30
Spring selling season / boat-show demand window
Seasonal retail demand through spring/summer typically drives unit sales and dealer inventory turnover; window end used as expected date (assumption: demand peak by season end) [#SERP-1].
Prob 55.00% • Move 12.00% • Priced-in 40.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

No short-term catalysts

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Strategic expansion or financing initiative (long-term growth)
2027-01-30
Execution of new sales programs, margin initiatives, or meaningful M&A could re-rate the stock; low-to-moderate probability within 12 months absent company guidance.
Prob 25% • Move 25% • Priced-in 10%

Risks

Cyclical drop in discretionary boating demand
Dealer inventory gluts forcing markdowns and margin erosion
Higher interest rates / reduced consumer financing availability
Rising input and operating costs compressing gross margins

Peers

Symbol	Summary
BC	Brunswick Corporation — large diversified marine OEM and dealer channel exposure; useful comparator for industry cycle and consumer boating demand.
MPX	Marine Products Corporation — smaller OEM with similar end‑market sensitivity to recreational boating trends.
MCFT	MasterCraft Boat Holdings — focused boat manufacturer/dealer relationships that reflect retail demand trends and product mix risk.
MBUU	Malibu Boats (MBUU) — premium boat OEM; provides insight into pricing and margin direction in higher-end segments.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: MarineMax Inc Common (HZO) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-01-30

AI Stock Memo: HZO - MarineMax - RankAlpha