B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$45.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-28 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
HZO
MarineMaxDNYSE / Consumer Discretionary Distribution & Retail
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The Q3 print supports a diversified-business thesis: gross-margin expansion, sharply higher adjusted EBITDA, strong parts and service demand, lower inventory, and refinancing could improve earnings quality and reduce financial pressure. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-23]
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +3.5.
What can break
Consumer spending, geopolitical, tariff, weather, and seasonal risk.
Momentum
99
Value
56
Sentiment
30
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $37.50 · Bull $45.00 · Bear $28.00Analysis 2026-07-28; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-07-28 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $45.00
Why
Momentum99 · Δ7d -0.2
Value56 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment30 · Δ7d +3.5
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +3.5.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Consumer spending, geopolitical, tariff, weather, and seasonal risk.
- • Continued weakness in recreational-boat demand and same-store sales.
- • Revenue and same-store sales declined 7%, retail demand remains soft, and the guidance range was reaffirmed rather than raised.
Catalyst clock
2026-07-23
Q3 profitability beat-through with guidance reaffirmed
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
99
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.2
Δ21d
+2.3
Value
56
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
-3.4
Sentiment
30
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+3.5
Δ21d
+2.3
Why this grade
Composite grade D. Momentum 98.9 / Value 56.2 / Sentiment 29.9
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-07-28. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
40%
Probability
Target price
$37.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-28 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
40%
Probability
Target price
$28.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-28 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$1.15B
Beta
1.69
Shares Out
22.09M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
85.7
P/S (TTM)
0.23
P/FCF (TTM)
45.01
Rev YoY
-7.0%
EPS YoY
-127.4%
Gross Margin
+34.2%
Op Margin
+2.9%
Net Debt
$1.08B
Current Ratio
1.23
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data