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YPF

YPFC
NYSE / Energy
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Company-source 1Q26 evidence supports a constructive operating base: revenue reached US$4.946 billion, adjusted EBITDA US$1.594 billion, shale oil output 205 KBBL/d, free cash flow US$871 million, and net leverage 1.57x in the May 2026 investor presentation [#IR-1Q26-PRESENTATION-MAY-2026]. If YPF keeps converting Vaca Muerta scale into volume growth and lower lifting costs, the stock can move toward the existing median target zone.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
4 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
What can break
Argentina sovereign, FX, and policy risk can overwhelm otherwise solid operating execution.
Momentum
49
Value
64
Sentiment
55
Setup hits (3d)
4 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $47.00 · Bull $58.00 · Bear $35.00Analysis 2026-06-30; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-06-30 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $60.04
Why
Momentum49 · Δ7d +5.7
Value64 · Δ7d +0.1
Sentiment55 · Δ7d +3.9
So what
Balanced signals (Net Bullish). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • 4 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +3.9.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Argentina sovereign, FX, and policy risk can overwhelm otherwise solid operating execution.
  • • Despite improved liquidity and lower leverage, YPF still carries material refinancing sensitivity and country-risk-linked cost of capital.
  • • Forward visibility is still only moderate because the strongest current evidence is a single company presentation plus a scheduled August 5, 2026 checkpoint.

Catalyst clock

2026-08-05

2Q26 earnings webcast on August 5, 2026

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
49
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+5.7
Δ21d
-13.3
Value
64
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.1
Δ21d
+13.3
Sentiment
55
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+3.9
Δ21d
-3.3
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 48.9 / Value 63.5 / Sentiment 55.4

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-06-30. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$58.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-06-30 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$47.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-06-30 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$35.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-06-30 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$20.78B
Beta
1.01
Shares Out
393.26M
P/E (TTM)
13.5
P/S (TTM)
1.12
P/FCF (TTM)
149.50
Rev YoY
+41.5%
EPS YoY
+2063.3%
Gross Margin
+34.9%
Op Margin
+20.1%
Net Debt
$9.95B
Current Ratio
0.93
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data