YPF

YPFB

NYSE / Energy

At close

2026-06-03

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AI scenario view

RankAlpha Sentiment AI

B+

Bull case

20%

Probability

Target price

$70.00

+27.5% vs current

Most likely

Base case

60%

Probability

Target price

$39.40

-28.2% vs current

B-

Bear case

20%

Probability

Target price

$28.00

-49.0% vs current

AI sentiment snapshot

Latest data as of 2026-01-28

AI commentary

Consensus is modestly positive: the median target (~39.4) sits slightly above the anchor while the high/low spread is wide, signaling analyst dispersion [#SERP-3,#SERP-1]. Investor focus remains on near-term results and Argentina-specific regulatory signals, which drive conditional upside if policies stabilize [#SERP-6]. Overall tone is cautious-constructive: upside exists but political and FX risks keep sentiment mixed and sensitive to catalysts [#SERP-8].

RankAlpha Sentiment AI - 2026-01-28

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Evidence flagged

No evidence quality warning is currently attached to this memo.

Impact

standard

Confidence

AI events

2026-03-31eventFY2025 / Q4 results and 2026 guidance release (assumed window)High impact

Full-year 2025 results and 2026 guidance could re-rate shares if production, capex or FX translation differ from expectations; date assumed at quarter-end reporting window (assumption: company will report by end of Q1) [#SERP-6].

2026-04-28catalystNear-term Argentina macro & policy risk (subsidy/FX)High impact

Potential changes to energy subsidies, export rules, or peso volatility that compress margins and free cash flow; market sensitivity reflected in analyst dispersion [#SERP-3],[#SERP-6].

2027-01-28catalystUpstream investment / asset performance over next 12 monthsHigh impact

Sustained higher production or successful upstream projects would materially lift intrinsic value versus peers; longer runway for Argentina-specific recovery and commodity tailwinds [#SERP-1],[#SERP-3].

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Recommendation

N/A

No formal recommendation provided.

Open AI Memo

As of 2026-01-28 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology