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XP

XPC
Nasdaq / Financial Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The primary Q2 release showed resilient operating momentum: client assets, inflows, cards, credit and wholesale banking all grew, while EBT increased 15% year over year and capital returns continued [#IR-2Q26-2026-08-17]. A sustained recovery in capital-markets activity could improve revenue mix and operating leverage.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
5 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
What can break
Credit growth and broader Brazilian macroeconomic, interest-rate, regulatory and foreign-exchange conditions could increase earnings volatility.
Momentum
79
Value
61
Sentiment
57
Setup hits (3d)
5 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $18.50 · Bull $22.80 · Bear $13.50Analysis 2026-08-21; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-10 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-21 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-10

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-10. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $23.47
Why
Momentum79 · Δ7d +13.0
Value61 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment57 · Δ7d +8.1
So what
Balanced signals (Net Bullish). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • 5 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +8.1.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Credit growth and broader Brazilian macroeconomic, interest-rate, regulatory and foreign-exchange conditions could increase earnings volatility.
  • • Fixed-income revenue and take-rate compression may persist if client mix remains concentrated in lower-yield daily-liquidity products.
  • • The post-print decline despite a reported earnings beat suggests investors remain focused on fee pressure, market sensitivity and the quality of revenue growth.

Catalyst clock

2026-08-17

Q2 2026 earnings beat but muted reaction

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
79
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+13.0
Δ21d
+55.9
Value
61
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
+0.1
Sentiment
57
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+8.1
Δ21d
-19.7
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 78.8 / Value 60.8 / Sentiment 56.6

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-21. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$22.80
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-21 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$18.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-21 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$13.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-21 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$8.12B
Beta
1.22
Shares Out
517.02M
P/E (TTM)
9.8
P/S (TTM)
2.67
P/FCF (TTM)
2.69
Rev YoY
+20.7%
EPS YoY
+21.7%
Gross Margin
+68.4%
Op Margin
+31.9%
Net Debt
$13.68B
Current Ratio
0.31
As of 2026-09-10 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data