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XP

XPA
Nasdaq / Financial Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
XP's 2Q26 release showed 12% year-over-year client-asset growth, stronger net inflows and 15% EBT growth. If those trends persist through 3Q26 and election-related selling proves disproportionate to operating effects, the shares could recover.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-27.
What can break
2Q26 retail take rate fell year over year and fixed-income retail revenue contracted, despite stronger overall inflows. [#PR-2026-08-17] XP 2Q26 earnings release
Momentum
99
Value
60
Sentiment
55
Setup hits (3d)
3 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $16.00 · Bull $22.00 · Bear $11.00Analysis 2026-10-27; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-27 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-27 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-27 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-27

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-27. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $26.22
Why
Momentum99 · Δ7d -0.5
Value60 · Δ7d +5.5
Sentiment55 · Δ7d +59.1
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Bullish). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • 3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-27.
  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +5.5.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • 2Q26 retail take rate fell year over year and fixed-income retail revenue contracted, despite stronger overall inflows. [#PR-2026-08-17] XP 2Q26 earnings release
  • • A director's September 16 open-market sale of 123,257 shares is disclosed in Form 4, but does not establish a view on operations. [#SEC-FORM4-2026-09-17] SEC Form 4
  • • Brazil macro uncertainty may weigh on client activity, risk appetite and the currency.

Catalyst clock

2026-11-13

Brazil election shock repricing

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
99
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.5
Δ21d
+1.0
Value
60
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+5.5
Δ21d
+4.7
Sentiment
55
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+59.1
Δ21d
+50.6
Why this grade

Composite grade A. Momentum 99.1 / Value 59.8 / Sentiment 55.2

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-27. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$22.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-27 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$16.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-27 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$11.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-27 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-27
Market Cap
$8.25B
Beta
1.22
Shares Out
517.02M
P/E (TTM)
9.8
P/S (TTM)
2.67
P/FCF (TTM)
2.69
Rev YoY
+20.7%
EPS YoY
+21.7%
Gross Margin
+68.4%
Op Margin
+31.9%
Net Debt
$13.68B
Current Ratio
0.31
As of 2026-10-27 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data