B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$102.00
+6.6% vs current
WLDN
Willdan GroupBNasdaq / Commercial & Professional Services
Last Price
At close
2026-06-02
AI scenario view
RankAlpha Sentiment CodexPost-earnings T+1Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$90.00
-6.0% vs current
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$72.00
-24.8% vs current
AI sentiment snapshot
Latest data as of 2026-05-08
Recent news sentiment (30D)
+0.7
Mixed
Company
-
Unavailable
Macro
-
Unavailable
Pulse
-
Unavailable
Sentiment proxy
+41.8
Score
AI commentary
This was a T+1 post-earnings follow-up with strong primary-company support and a clear thesis change versus the prior neutral prior. News flow is concentrated around the May 7, 2026 earnings release, Burton acquisition, and NYC contract win. Live price action checked on May 8, 2026 was strongly positive, with WLDN trading at $88.39, up about 18.6% from the prior close, but confirmed analyst-revision depth is still thin, so the name still reads as a positive-but-monitoring setup rather than a fully validated post-earnings rerating.
RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-05-08
Open post-earnings memoEvidence flagged
No evidence quality warning is currently attached to this memo.
Impact
standard
Confidence
-
AI events
2026-05-08catalystQ1 beat with higher 2026 targets and margin expansionHigh impact
Willdan reported Q1 net revenue of $92.4M (+8.3%; +16.6% normalized), adjusted EBITDA of $18.1M (+25.4%; +35.0% normalized), adjusted EPS of $0.91 (+44.4%), and raised 2026 targets to net revenue of $410M-$425M, adjusted EBITDA of $100M-$105M, and adjusted EPS of $4.90-$5.05; management tied the improvement to strong energy-solutions demand, productivity, and richer commercial mix. [#8-K-2026-05-07]
2026-08-06eventBurton integration expands commercial exposure but adds execution watchpointsHigh impact
Management said Burton Energy Group more than doubles Willdan's services to the commercial market, while the Q1 10-Q disclosed a $30.0M revolver draw on April 29, 2026 to fund part of the purchase price. If integration is clean, the acquisition can broaden cross-sell and mix; if not, balance-sheet and execution scrutiny rises. [#8-K-2026-05-07][#10-Q-2026-05-08]
2026-12-31catalystUtility and municipal energy-program wins support backlog conversion narrativeHigh impact
Willdan's 10-K frames demand around energy efficiency, grid modernization, and public-agency infrastructure work, and the company added a $27M three-year NYC Accelerator contract on April 15, 2026, supporting continued revenue visibility beyond the earnings print. [#10-K-2026-02-27][#IR-2026-04-15]
Recommendation
N/A
No formal recommendation provided.
As of 2026-05-08 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology