WAY

WaystarD

Nasdaq / Health Care Equipment & Services

At close

2026-06-03

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AI scenario view

RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

B+

Bull case

25%

Probability

Target price

$34.00

+74.1% vs current

Most likely

Base case

50%

Probability

Target price

$27.00

+38.3% vs current

B-

Bear case

25%

Probability

Target price

$16.00

-18.1% vs current

AI sentiment snapshot

Latest data as of 2026-05-05

AI commentary

Primary-source evidence is solid, but the forward setup remains a cautious monitoring view: the company posted a strong quarter, yet the May 4, 2026 anchor price of $20.88 suggests the market has not fully re-rated the story after earnings. Recent news flow is earnings-related, but post-print analyst revision data is sparse and the peer set is not direct enough to support a standard-conviction thesis.

RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-05-05

Open full AI memo

Evidence flagged

peer set is too generic or lacks enough direct operating comparators; memo remains a monitoring view with limited forward evidence and should not be standard-conviction

Impact

tentative

Confidence

AI events

2026-08-05catalystQ1 execution and FY26 outlook keep the core growth case intactHigh impact

Waystar reported Q1 2026 revenue of $313.9M, up 22.4% year over year, with subscription revenue up 37.7% to $172.2M, adjusted EBITDA margin of 43%, 1,433 clients contributing over $100k in LTM revenue, and FY26 guidance of $1.274B-$1.294B revenue plus $530M-$540M adjusted EBITDA [#8-K-2026-04-29] [#10-Q-2026-04-29].

2026-09-30eventIodine integration and AI product rollout could become the next proof pointHigh impact

Management said it advanced the Iodine integration and launched an AI-powered recoupment solution, while the 10-Q frames Iodine as a strategic AI and revenue-cycle asset; evidence of cross-sell or faster monetization would matter because the stock still lacks a clear post-acquisition re-rating signal [#8-K-2026-04-29] [#10-Q-2026-04-29].

2026-12-31catalystMix shift toward subscription software can support a higher-quality revenue baseHigh impact

The quarter showed subscription revenue reaching 54.9% of sales versus 48.8% a year earlier, while the filing emphasizes recurring provider-count fees, cross-sell potential, and network-effect data advantages; sustained mix improvement would support a better multiple if retention and volume trends hold [#10-Q-2026-04-29].

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Recommendation

N/A

No formal recommendation provided.

Open AI Memo

As of 2026-05-05 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology