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VSAT

ViaSatC
Nasdaq / Technology Hardware & Equipment
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Backlog growth, defense awards, VS-3 service-entry progress, debt reduction, and continued aviation and government demand could support a stronger second half and eventual multiple recovery.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
1 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-10.
What can break
Adjusted EBITDA declined year over year while FY2027 capital expenditure is expected at approximately $950 million to $1 billion.
Momentum
56
Value
61
Sentiment
62
Setup hits (3d)
1 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $84.00 · Bull $108.00 · Bear $58.00Analysis 2026-09-06; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-10 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-06 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-10

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-10. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $103.94
Why
Momentum56 · Δ7d +13.4
Value61 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment62 · Δ7d +17.6
So what
Balanced signals (Net Bullish). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • 1 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-10.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +17.6.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Adjusted EBITDA declined year over year while FY2027 capital expenditure is expected at approximately $950 million to $1 billion.
  • • Net debt and continued capital intensity constrain valuation flexibility and free-cash-flow conversion.
  • • Revenue and adjusted EBITDA declines, legacy commercial-service pressure, high capital expenditure, leverage, and satellite or service-entry execution risk could prolong the post-earnings weakness.

Catalyst clock

2026-09-30

VS-3 service-entry execution

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
56
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+13.4
Δ21d
-27.8
Value
61
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
-1.2
Sentiment
62
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+17.6
Δ21d
+1.0
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 56.1 / Value 61.1 / Sentiment 62.3

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-06. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$108.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-06 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$84.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-06 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$58.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-06 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$11.21B
Beta
1.46
Shares Out
137.76M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-321.8
P/S (TTM)
1.14
P/FCF (TTM)
35.54
Rev YoY
-1.2%
EPS YoY
-12.0%
Gross Margin
+27.6%
Op Margin
+2.4%
Net Debt
$5.19B
Current Ratio
1.68
As of 2026-09-10 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data