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UPS

United Parcel ServiceB
NYSE / Transportation
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
UPS converts network investments, pricing and efficiency gains into sustained margin expansion and stronger cash returns, supporting upside toward the bull target.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +7.8.
What can break
Changes to capital return policy or margin squeezes
Momentum
53
Value
56
Sentiment
74
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $107.79 · Bull $150.00 · Bear $75.00Analysis 2026-01-28; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-10 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-01-28 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-10

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-10. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $116.36
Why
Momentum53 · Δ7d +23.1
Value56 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment74 · Δ7d +7.8
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +7.8.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Changes to capital return policy or margin squeezes
  • • Fuel and input cost volatility
  • • Protracted labor disruptions, higher fuel/wage inflation, or weaker volumes compress margins and cash flow, driving the stock near the bear target.

Catalyst clock

2026-04-28

Post-earnings analyst revisions

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
53
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+23.1
Δ21d
+29.1
Value
56
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
+3.3
Sentiment
74
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+7.8
Δ21d
+3.5
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 53.1 / Value 55.6 / Sentiment 73.9

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-01-28. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$150.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-01-28 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Most likely
B
Base case
60%
Probability
Target price
$107.79
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-01-28 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$75.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-01-28 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$86.8B
Beta
1.09
Shares Out
850.78M
P/E (TTM)
15.8
P/S (TTM)
0.97
P/FCF (TTM)
106.31
Rev YoY
+7.7%
EPS YoY
-53.1%
Gross Margin
+18.3%
Op Margin
+9.3%
Net Debt
$22.7B
Current Ratio
1.18
As of 2026-09-10 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data