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UPS

United Parcel ServiceB
NYSE / Transportation
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
View Chart
Current thesis
UPS converts network investments, pricing and efficiency gains into sustained margin expansion and stronger cash returns, supporting upside toward the bull target.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-27 · BMO.
What can break
Changes to capital return policy or margin squeezes
Momentum
47
Value
54
Sentiment
64
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $107.79 · Bull $150.00 · Bear $75.00Analysis 2026-01-28; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
29 · Non-qualifying
Next 2026-10-27 · BMO
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-26 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-01-28 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Earnings Setup
As of 2026-10-27 • RankAlpha AI
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $114.04
Why
Momentum47 · Δ7d +1.2
Value54 · Δ7d -0.6
Sentiment64 · Δ7d -4.4
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Earnings surprise screen
29Non-qualifying2026-10-27 bmo
View setup

UPS has a documented prior EPS beat streak and an official Oct. 27 results announcement, but pre-event forecasts pointed to lower EPS, checked estimates did not establish upside revisions, and Oct. 26 price action was weak with no verified high-close or exceptional volume signal.

Screen as of 2026-10-27. Window 2026-10-27 to 2026-11-02.

Confirming evidence

  • • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-27 · BMO.
  • • Pre-earnings setup: 29 / non-qualifying.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -4.4.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Changes to capital return policy or margin squeezes
  • • Fuel and input cost volatility
  • • Protracted labor disruptions, higher fuel/wage inflation, or weaker volumes compress margins and cash flow, driving the stock near the bear target.

Catalyst clock

2026-10-27 · BMO

Post-earnings analyst revisions

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
47
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
+1.2
Δ21d
+11.8
Value
54
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.6
Δ21d
-1.7
Sentiment
64
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-4.4
Δ21d
-19.6
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 47.0 / Value 54.1 / Sentiment 64.4

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-01-28. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$150.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-01-28 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Most likely
B
Base case
60%
Probability
Target price
$107.79
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-01-28 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$75.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-01-28 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-26
Market Cap
$85.35B
Beta
1.09
Shares Out
850.78M
P/E (TTM)
15.8
P/S (TTM)
0.97
P/FCF (TTM)
106.31
Rev YoY
+7.7%
EPS YoY
-53.1%
Gross Margin
+18.3%
Op Margin
+9.3%
Net Debt
$22.7B
Current Ratio
1.18
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data