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UNM

Unum GroupC
NYSE / Insurance
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Primary-source evidence improved after the April 28, 2026 release: core operations posted solid sales, premium growth, and 21.7% adjusted operating ROE, while capital return was aggressive. The median analyst target in the packet is $93.1538, materially above the April 28 anchor price of $77.82, so the post-print setup still leaves room for upside if investors underwrite the $8.60-$8.90 2026 adjusted operating EPS outlook as credible.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Value
What changed
3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-25.
What can break
Available packet peers are insurance-sector comparators rather than clean disability-benefits matches, so relative-valuation conclusions should be treated cautiously.
Momentum
65
Value
49
Sentiment
51
Setup hits (3d)
3 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $86.00 · Bull $92.00 · Bear $71.00Analysis 2026-04-29; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-04-29 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $102.15
Why
Momentum65 · Δ7d +7.7
Value49 · Δ7d +0.7
Sentiment51 · Δ7d +2.5
So what
Balanced signals (Net Bullish). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • 3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-25.
  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.7.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Available packet peers are insurance-sector comparators rather than clean disability-benefits matches, so relative-valuation conclusions should be treated cautiously.
  • • Closed Block adjusted operating loss worsened to $145.3 million in Q1 2026, with long-term care claim incidence and group policy terminations still pressuring results.
  • • The quality of the quarter was not clean enough to justify a full-throttle bullish read.

Catalyst clock

2026-04-28

Q1 2026 earnings and full-year adjusted operating EPS outlook support a constructive reset

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
65
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+7.7
Δ21d
-4.3
Value
49
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.7
Δ21d
+0.6
Sentiment
51
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+2.5
Δ21d
-8.3
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 64.8 / Value 48.8 / Sentiment 50.9

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-04-29. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$92.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$86.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$71.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$14.29B
Beta
0.19
Shares Out
158.31M
P/E (TTM)
15.3
P/S (TTM)
1.00
P/FCF (TTM)
34.21
Rev YoY
+0.2%
EPS YoY
-16.6%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
+8.7%
Net Debt
$3.69B
Current Ratio
0.22
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data