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ULCC

Frontier GroupC
Nasdaq / Transportation
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Bull case: Successful execution of fleet optimization (sale‑leasebacks) plus unit‑revenue recovery and continued CASM improvements materially boost free cash flow and support re‑rating toward the $8.00 bull target.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +1.7.
What can break
Fleet-transaction execution risk (sale-leaseback/returns deviate from plan)
Momentum
20
Value
34
Sentiment
72
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $5.87 · Bull $8.00 · Bear $4.00Analysis 2026-02-13; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-02-13 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $6.78
Why
Momentum20 · Δ7d -26.3
Value34 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment72 · Δ7d +1.7
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +1.7.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Fleet-transaction execution risk (sale-leaseback/returns deviate from plan)
  • • Jet-fuel price spike or hedging shortfalls raising unit costs
  • • Bear case: Demand weakness, fuel or labor cost shocks, or failed execution on fleet/capacity adjustments compress margins and cash flow, leaving the stock near the $4.00 downside scenario.

Catalyst clock

2026-02-11

Q4 2025 / Full‑Year 2025 Earnings (reported)

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
20
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-26.3
Δ21d
-68.2
Value
34
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
+0.5
Sentiment
72
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+1.7
Δ21d
+11.2
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 20.2 / Value 33.7 / Sentiment 71.8

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-02-13. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$8.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-13 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Most likely
B
Base case
55%
Probability
Target price
$5.87
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-13 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$4.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-13 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$1.46B
Beta
2.55
Shares Out
230.22M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-10.6
P/S (TTM)
0.30
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-11.41
Rev YoY
+37.7%
EPS YoY
+27.4%
Gross Margin
-5.2%
Op Margin
-17.2%
Net Debt
$4.79B
Current Ratio
0.58
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data