B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$8.80
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
TZOO
TravelzooANasdaq / Media & Entertainment
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The bull case is that 2025 was an investment year for the paid-membership pivot rather than a peak year: Q4 revenue grew 9% year over year, deferred revenue rose to $8.7 million, management said it sees positive adoption for paid membership, and the 2026 U.S. price increase can lift recurring revenue if renewals stick [#8-K-2026-02-19][#10-K-2026-03-11].
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -3.4.
What can break
Europe profitability remains fragile and could offset North America gains.
Momentum
87
Value
52
Sentiment
74
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $6.60 · Bull $8.80 · Bear $4.40Analysis 2026-04-15; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-04-15 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $18.88
Why
Momentum87 · Δ7d -0.1
Value52 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment74 · Δ7d -3.4
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -3.4.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Europe profitability remains fragile and could offset North America gains.
- • Member-acquisition spend may fail to produce attractive renewal economics or margin recovery.
- • The bear case is that the core economics remain unproven at scale: North America margin fell sharply, Europe turned to an operating loss because of member-acquisition spending, Jack's Flight Club subscriber growth was flat, and 2025 year-end equity was negative despite still-profitable full-year operations [#8-K-2026-02-19][#10-K-2026-03-11].
Catalyst clock
2026-06-30
Fresh buyback authorization offers support, but cash and balance-sheet flexibility are tighter than in 2024
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
87
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.1
Δ21d
-
Value
52
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
-14.7
Sentiment
74
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
-3.4
Δ21d
-
Why this grade
Composite grade A. Momentum 87.0 / Value 51.6 / Sentiment 73.6
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-04-15. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$6.60
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$4.40
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$70.6M
Beta
0.89
Shares Out
10.2M
P/E (TTM)
11.0
P/S (TTM)
0.86
P/FCF (TTM)
6.48
Rev YoY
-2.9%
EPS YoY
-269.8%
Gross Margin
+76.3%
Op Margin
+1.9%
Net Debt
-$4.01M
Current Ratio
0.64
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data