TYRA

Tyra BiosciencesC

Nasdaq / Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences

At close

2026-06-11

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AI scenario view

RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

B+

Bull case

28%

Probability

Target price

$49.00

+91.6% vs current

Most likely

Base case

47%

Probability

Target price

$39.00

+52.5% vs current

B-

Bear case

25%

Probability

Target price

$26.00

+1.7% vs current

AI sentiment snapshot

Latest data as of 2026-05-03

AI commentary

Sentiment remains cautious-to-neutral. The deterministic score shows a meaningful thesis-change signal, but the practical evidence change is still mostly the March 2026 company update plus financing, not a fully digested new earnings packet. As of May 3, 2026, we did not confirm a fresher company earnings release or a reliable set of delayed analyst revisions tied to the scheduled April 30, 2026 follow-up window, so missing post-print evidence should lower confidence rather than be read as positive. The monitoring focus stays on whether the mid-2026 SURF302 readout arrives on time and whether the stock can hold above the March financing price of $31.50 without new dilution concerns [#PR-2026-03-02] [#8-K-2026-03-04].

RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-05-03

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Evidence flagged

No evidence quality warning is currently attached to this memo.

Impact

standard

Confidence

AI events

2026-05-03catalystLatest company-confirmed financial update still centers on runway and milestone pacingMedium impact

As of May 3, 2026, we did not locate a newer company earnings release or 10-Q after the scheduled April 30, 2026 follow-up window, so the latest company-confirmed earnings update we found remains the March 2, 2026 release. That update said cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities were $256.0 million at December 31, 2025 and that runway should extend through at least 2027, while keeping the key 2026 clinical timing intact [#PR-2026-03-02].

2026-06-30eventSURF302 initial three-month complete response data remains the nearest real valuation testHigh impact

Tyra said SURF302 in FGFR3-altered low-grade IR NMIBC remains expected to report initial three-month complete response data by the end of 1H 2026. For a low-coverage clinical biotech with limited fresh earnings follow-up, this remains the clearest near-dated proof point for whether dabogratinib can support a rerating beyond a monitoring thesis [#PR-2026-03-02].

2026-12-31catalystBEACH301 achondroplasia sentinel results are the next franchise-broadening readoutHigh impact

Management said BEACH301 interim safety sentinel results, including 6-month average height velocity and safety, remain expected in 2H 2026, after two of four dose levels were cleared with no safety events reported. Positive pediatric data would broaden the dabogratinib story beyond uro-oncology, while mixed data would reinforce single-asset concentration risk [#PR-2026-03-02].

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Recommendation

N/A

No formal recommendation provided.

Open AI Memo

As of 2026-05-03 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology