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TR

Tootsie Roll IndustriesA
NYSE / Food Beverage & Tobacco
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Bull case: company executes on margin recovery and mix improvement across retail channels (post-holiday recovery + limited promotional pressure), leading to EPS upside and investor multiple expansion; positive surprises in upcoming quarterly results accelerate re-rating.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +12.8.
What can break
Margin pressure from commodity or labor costs
Momentum
58
Value
46
Sentiment
82
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $44.00 · Bull $52.00 · Bear $36.00Analysis 2026-04-16; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-04-16 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Why
Momentum58 · Δ7d -5.7
Value46 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment82 · Δ7d +12.8
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +12.8.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Margin pressure from commodity or labor costs
  • • Promotional price wars or lost shelf space
  • • Bear case: continued margin pressure, weaker-than-expected retail sell-through and structural mix headwinds force downward revisions; deferred tax/valuation items disclosed in 10-K trigger increased earnings volatility or one-time charges.

Catalyst clock

2026-07-15

Upcoming Q1 2026 quarterly filing / results (regular quarterly cadence)

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
58
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-5.7
Δ21d
+14.8
Value
46
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
-2.2
Sentiment
82
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+12.8
Δ21d
+8.6
Why this grade

Composite grade A. Momentum 58.2 / Value 46.0 / Sentiment 82.4

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-04-16. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$52.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-16 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Most likely
B
Base case
60%
Probability
Target price
$44.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-16 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$36.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-16 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$2.98B
Beta
0.52
Shares Out
75.07M
P/E (TTM)
27.8
P/S (TTM)
3.55
P/FCF (TTM)
34.90
Rev YoY
-0.6%
EPS YoY
-23.9%
Gross Margin
+34.7%
Op Margin
+12.1%
Net Debt
-$163.15M
Current Ratio
2.89
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data