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TR

Tootsie Roll IndustriesC
NYSE / Food Beverage & Tobacco
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
If deferred seasonal sales appear in Q3 and lower cocoa costs flow through without a comparable increase in promotions, the Q2 profit decline may prove temporary [#SEC-8K-2026-07-23]. The Mexico acquisition offers a separate, unquantified opportunity [#8-K-2026-09-01].
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-28.
What can break
Higher cocoa and chocolate unit costs, freight, packaging and marketing expense pressured first-half 2026 profitability [#SEC-8K-2026-07-23].
Momentum
44
Value
47
Sentiment
58
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $36.00 · Bull $41.00 · Bear $30.00Analysis 2026-10-22; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
2026-10-28
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-22 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Why
Momentum44 · Δ7d -1.8
Value47 · Δ7d +0.8
Sentiment58 · Δ7d -13.7
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-28.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -13.7.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Higher cocoa and chocolate unit costs, freight, packaging and marketing expense pressured first-half 2026 profitability [#SEC-8K-2026-07-23].
  • • No company Q3 release or 8-K was confirmed for the scheduled October 21 earnings trigger; a Q3 beat, miss or guidance change cannot be assessed.
  • • Q2 EPS declined 22% despite a 1% net-sales decline.

Catalyst clock

2026-10-28

Confirm third-quarter results and pre-Halloween sales

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
44
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-1.8
Δ21d
-16.1
Value
47
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.8
Δ21d
+0.8
Sentiment
58
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-13.7
Δ21d
-23.4
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 44.3 / Value 46.9 / Sentiment 58.3

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-22. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$41.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-22 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$36.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-22 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$30.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-22 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$2.67B
Beta
0.52
Shares Out
75.07M
P/E (TTM)
27.8
P/S (TTM)
3.55
P/FCF (TTM)
34.90
Rev YoY
-0.6%
EPS YoY
-23.9%
Gross Margin
+34.7%
Op Margin
+12.1%
Net Debt
-$163.15M
Current Ratio
2.89
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data