TPST

Tempest TherapeuticsD

Nasdaq / Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences

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AI scenario view

RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

B+

Bull case

15%

Probability

Target price

$1.20

Analysis reference price unavailable

Analysis 2026-10-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Most likely

Base case

50%

Probability

Target price

$0.50

Analysis reference price unavailable

Analysis 2026-10-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

B-

Bear case

35%

Probability

Target price

$0.20

Analysis reference price unavailable

Analysis 2026-10-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

The current persistence contract does not provide an exact AI reference price. RankAlpha therefore does not calculate scenario return from the live quote. How scenarios are presented

AI sentiment snapshot

Latest data as of 2026-10-15

AI commentary

Low-coverage, primary-filing-led monitoring view. The August earnings exhibit documents pipeline progress but also a severe cash constraint; the September agreement adds a material spending commitment. Recent market reaction, analyst revisions, social coverage, options skew, short interest, and employee sentiment were unavailable, so the numerical sentiment fields are unmeasured placeholders rather than neutral readings. The deterministic directional prior is negative.

RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-10-15

Open full AI memo

Evidence flagged

peer set is too generic or lacks enough direct operating comparators; small-cap biotech peer set is too weak or includes unrelated comparators for a standard-conviction report; small-cap biotech memo lacks a distinct long-horizon program, partnership, or financing catalyst for a standard-conviction report

Impact

tentative

Confidence

AI events

2026-12-31eventTPST-4003 first-patient dosingHigh impact

Tempest anticipated first enrollment and dosing in a roughly 10-patient, investigator-initiated China study of TPST-4003 in Q4 2026. Confirmation would validate trial initiation, not clinical efficacy [#SEC-8K-2026-08-13].

2026-12-31catalystFinancing and dilution riskHigh impact

Tempest reported $0.8 million of cash at June 30, 2026, versus $10.4 million of operating cash used in the first half. Additional funding appears important to sustaining development; its timing and terms are unknown [#SEC-8K-2026-08-13].

2026-12-31catalystRelated-party development spendingHigh impact

A September agreement with Factor Bioscience, a company linked to Tempest's CEO, carries expected fees of $5.0 million annually plus reimbursable costs and a project-management fee. The audit committee approved it, but funding and execution warrant scrutiny [#8-K-2026-09-28].

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Recommendation

N/A

No formal recommendation provided.

Open AI Memo

As of 2026-10-15 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology