TPST

Tempest TherapeuticsB

Nasdaq / Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences

At close

2026-07-18

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AI scenario view

RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

B+

Bull case

25%

Probability

Target price

$2.40

+148.4% vs current

Most likely

Base case

45%

Probability

Target price

$0.90

-6.8% vs current

B-

Bear case

30%

Probability

Target price

$0.35

-63.8% vs current

AI sentiment snapshot

Latest data as of 2026-06-25

AI commentary

This remains a filing-led, low-buzz micro-cap biotech setup. The evidence packet shows no recent trusted-news flow beyond company/SEC materials and no usable social coverage, while the deterministic prior is negative; the June 23, 2026 8-K confirmed stockholder approval for additional warrant-linked share issuance, and the distinct long-horizon upside hooks are TPST-2003 U.S. registrational preparation plus the partner-funded China BLA and BD/licensing path rather than broad sentiment momentum.

RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-06-25

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Evidence flagged

No evidence quality warning is currently attached to this memo.

Impact

standard

Confidence

AI events

2026-06-18eventJune 2026 stockholder approval removed a key gating item for warrant-linked share issuanceHigh impact

The June 18, 2026 special meeting approved Nasdaq Rule 5635 proposals covering up to 1,851,854 shares tied to March 2026 Series A and B warrants and up to 2,344,828 shares tied to the May 2026 inducement-related common warrants, which reduces a procedural overhang but keeps dilution and financing mechanics front and center [#8-K-2026-06-23].

2026-09-30catalystRunway and financing pressure remain the dominant near-term setupHigh impact

Tempest's March 2026 update described an up to $6 million private placement with $2 million upfront and up to $4 million of potential warrant-exercise proceeds, while the broader filing set keeps financing and dilution mechanics central to the near-term stock setup [#SEC-8K-2026-03-30].

2026-12-31catalystTPST-2003 registrational preparation is the main upside driver into late 2026High impact

Tempest said interim TPST-2003 data across REDEEM-1 and POEMS-1 showed a 100% complete response rate among 15 CAR-T-naive efficacy-evaluable patients, no Grade 3 or higher CRS or ICANS in REDEEM-1, and AGCTC was selected as lead manufacturing partner with lentiviral vector delivery completed to support a planned U.S. registrational study later in 2026 [#SEC-8K-2026-05-14].

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Recommendation

N/A

No formal recommendation provided.

Open AI Memo

As of 2026-06-25 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology