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TPG

TPGB
Nasdaq / Financial Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The Q2 beat, 25% year-over-year AUM growth, 50% quarterly FRE margin, fundraising momentum, and maintained greater-than-$50 billion 2026 fundraising objective support a constructive medium-term setup. [#EARNINGS-TRANSCRIPT-2026Q2]
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +14.5.
What can break
Management expects the effective corporate tax rate to rise later in 2026 after available deductions are used. [#EARNINGS-TRANSCRIPT-2026Q2]
Momentum
76
Value
46
Sentiment
75
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $56.00 · Bull $63.00 · Bear $42.00Analysis 2026-08-07; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-11 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-07 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-11

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-11. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $60.94
Why
Momentum76 · Δ7d -9.2
Value46 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment75 · Δ7d +14.5
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +14.5.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Management expects the effective corporate tax rate to rise later in 2026 after available deductions are used. [#EARNINGS-TRANSCRIPT-2026Q2]
  • • Q3 transaction and monitoring fees are expected to decline after some deals closed early in Q2.
  • • The main offset is near-term revenue normalization: Q2 benefited from pulled-forward transaction closes, while realizations remain sensitive to macro conditions and management expects realized performance allocations to improve only toward year-end and into 2027.

Catalyst clock

2026-08-04

Q2 earnings beat with strong fee-related growth

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
76
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-9.2
Δ21d
-6.6
Value
46
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
-0.1
Sentiment
75
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+14.5
Δ21d
+12.4
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 76.1 / Value 45.7 / Sentiment 75.4

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-07. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
0%
Probability
Target price
$63.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-07 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
1%
Probability
Target price
$56.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-07 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
0%
Probability
Target price
$42.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-07 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$19.91B
Beta
1.49
Shares Out
160.11M
P/E (TTM)
244.9
P/S (TTM)
5.91
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-35.01
Rev YoY
+99.0%
EPS YoY
-832.8%
Gross Margin
+96.7%
Op Margin
+15.4%
Net Debt
$1.58B
Current Ratio
1.33
As of 2026-09-11 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data