B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$105.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
TPB
Turning Point BrandsANYSE / Food Beverage & Tobacco
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Modern Oral is scaling rapidly, guidance was raised, and retail distribution, shelf resets, and manufacturing expansion could support sustained growth and eventual operating leverage.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -3.0.
What can break
Analyst revisions, options data, employee sentiment, and social coverage are unavailable.
Momentum
25
Value
46
Sentiment
85
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $87.00 · Bull $105.00 · Bear $60.00Analysis 2026-09-03; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-03 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $125.17
Why
Momentum25 · Δ7d -8.3
Value46 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment85 · Δ7d -3.0
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -3.0.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Analyst revisions, options data, employee sentiment, and social coverage are unavailable.
- • Modern Oral growth may require sustained sales, marketing, and retail investment, delaying EBITDA recovery.
- • The latest growth print came with a 50% adjusted EBITDA decline, heavier commercial investment, lower Stoker’s margin, Zig-Zag weakness, and regulatory execution risk.
Catalyst clock
2026-08-04
Q2 results raised Modern Oral outlook
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
25
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-8.3
Δ21d
-7.1
Value
46
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
+3.9
Sentiment
85
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-3.0
Δ21d
-2.6
Why this grade
Composite grade A. Momentum 25.3 / Value 46.0 / Sentiment 85.3
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-03. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
55%
Probability
Target price
$87.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$60.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$1.71B
Beta
0.88
Shares Out
20.05M
P/E (TTM)
33.4
P/S (TTM)
5.27
P/FCF (TTM)
61.36
Rev YoY
+22.6%
EPS YoY
-77.4%
Gross Margin
+59.2%
Op Margin
+16.9%
Net Debt
$86.21M
Current Ratio
5.67
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data