B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$90.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-22 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
TPB
Turning Point BrandsDNYSE / Food Beverage & Tobacco
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Modern Oral remains the central upside driver: Q2 net sales reportedly rose 128% to $68 million, and TPB reaffirmed its higher 2026 category outlook despite the leadership change. Distribution expansion and eventual domestic production could sustain growth and restore operating leverage.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -8.3.
What can break
An October 1 CEO transition creates execution and strategic-continuity risk even though the company said the departure was for personal reasons and not related to a disagreement. [#8-K-2026-09-21]
Momentum
11
Value
48
Sentiment
57
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $65.00 · Bull $90.00 · Bear $45.00Analysis 2026-09-22; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-27 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-27 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-22 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-27
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-27
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-27. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $118.50
Why
Momentum11 · Δ7d +3.1
Value48 · Δ7d -0.5
Sentiment57 · Δ7d -8.3
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -8.3.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • An October 1 CEO transition creates execution and strategic-continuity risk even though the company said the departure was for personal reasons and not related to a disagreement. [#8-K-2026-09-21]
- • Higher freight costs and the absence of assumed onshoring margin benefits until 2027 could keep profitability below growth expectations. [#8-K-2026-09-21]
- • The CEO transition arrives while EBITDA is under pressure.
Catalyst clock
2026-10-01
CEO transition and reduced EBITDA ceiling
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
11
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+3.1
Δ21d
+6.2
Value
48
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.5
Δ21d
-1.6
Sentiment
57
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-8.3
Δ21d
-25.8
Why this grade
Composite grade D. Momentum 10.8 / Value 47.9 / Sentiment 57.2
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-22. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$65.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-22 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$45.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-22 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-27
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-27
Market Cap
$1.35B
Beta
0.88
Shares Out
20.05M
P/E (TTM)
33.4
P/S (TTM)
5.27
P/FCF (TTM)
61.36
Rev YoY
+22.6%
EPS YoY
-77.4%
Gross Margin
+59.2%
Op Margin
+16.9%
Net Debt
$86.21M
Current Ratio
5.67
As of 2026-10-27 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data