B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$175.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-11 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
TOL
Toll BrothersANYSE / Consumer Durables & Apparel
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
AI scenario view
RankAlpha Sentiment CodexMost likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$150.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-11 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$105.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-11 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
The current persistence contract does not provide an exact AI reference price. RankAlpha therefore does not calculate scenario return from the live quote. How scenarios are presented
AI sentiment snapshot
Latest data as of 2026-09-11
Recent news sentiment (30D)
0.0
Mixed
Company
-
Unavailable
Macro
-
Unavailable
Pulse
-
Unavailable
Weekly research (10D)
-
Unavailable
Sentiment proxy
+82.8
Score
AI commentary
Primary evidence supports a cautiously positive execution view: Q3 contracts improved, guidance was reaffirmed, community expansion remains planned, and capital returns increased. That is offset by lower revenue, earnings, deliveries, backlog, and margins year over year. No reliable post-release price reaction, analyst target changes, estimate revisions, or sufficient social coverage was supplied, so the thesis should be monitored rather than treated as a confirmed inflection.
RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-09-11
Open full AI memoEvidence flagged
peer set is too generic or lacks enough direct operating comparators
Impact
tentative
Confidence
-
AI events
2026-10-31eventFiscal 2026 fourth-quarter delivery and margin executionMedium impact
Toll reaffirmed fourth-quarter guidance for 3,450-3,550 deliveries, a $995,000-$1,005,000 average delivered price, and a 26.0% adjusted home-sales gross margin. Achieving these targets would demonstrate execution after third-quarter revenue, deliveries, and margin declined year over year; a shortfall would reinforce pricing and demand concerns. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-18]
2026-12-31catalystContract growth converts into a steadier backlog outlookMedium impact
Third-quarter net signed contract value increased to $2.52 billion from $2.41 billion and contracted homes rose to 2,508 from 2,388, while backlog value and units remained below the prior year. The next fiscal results should show whether improved orders can stabilize backlog without further margin erosion. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-18]
2027-10-31catalystCommunity expansion and capital returns support fiscal 2027 value creationHigh impact
Management remains on track for 8%-10% fiscal 2026 community-count growth to 480-490 communities, says its land position supports similar growth in fiscal 2027 and beyond, and raised projected fiscal 2026 repurchases from $650 million to $700 million. Successful expansion without sacrificing returns could compound earnings and per-share value. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-18]
Recommendation
N/A
No formal recommendation provided.
As of 2026-09-11 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology