B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$190.00
+36.2% vs current
TOL
Toll BrothersCNYSE / Consumer Durables & Apparel
Last Price
At close
2026-06-02
AI scenario view
RankAlpha Sentiment CodexPost-earnings T+1Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$172.75
+23.8% vs current
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$105.00
-24.7% vs current
AI sentiment snapshot
Latest data as of 2026-05-19
Recent news sentiment (30D)
0.0
Mixed
Company
-
Unavailable
Macro
-
Unavailable
Pulse
-
Unavailable
Sentiment proxy
+63.8
Score
AI commentary
This is a primary-source-backed beat/raise, but the tape reaction was still negative on the day, so the post-print read is mixed rather than decisive. No post-release analyst revision set is available in the packet, so this remains a company-source-led monitoring view with limited forward visibility.
RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-05-19
Open post-earnings memoEvidence flagged
peer set is too generic or lacks enough direct operating comparators
Impact
tentative
Confidence
-
AI events
2026-05-19eventSame-day market reaction stayed negativeMedium impact
Despite the beat/raise, TOL was still down about 2.3% to 124.14 versus the prior close of 126.97 as of 2026-05-19 22:49 UTC, suggesting the market is still discounting housing-rate and margin risk rather than rewarding the print cleanly.
2026-05-19catalystQ2 beat/raise validates luxury demandMedium impact
Per [#8-K-2026-05-19], Q2 EPS was $2.72 and revenue was $2.51B; market coverage also cited consensus near $2.57 EPS and $2.42B revenue. Management said orders rose 7% in units and 8% in dollars, adjusted home sales gross margin was 26.2%, and FY26 guidance was raised across key homebuilding metrics.
2027-05-31catalystCommunity count and land control support FY27+ growthHigh impact
Management said community count increased 9% year over year and land control is sufficient for continued 8% to 10% growth in 2027 and beyond, which supports a longer-run volume story if margins stay near current levels [#8-K-2026-05-19].
Recommendation
N/A
No formal recommendation provided.
As of 2026-05-19 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology