B+
Bull case
15%
Probability
Target price
$24.60
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2025-10-23 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
TNL
Travel + LeisureFNYSE / Consumer Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Membership growth, margin recovery, and distribution wins drive >25% upside vs. the recent close.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.0.
What can break
Loss of distribution or competitive pressure
Momentum
25
Value
58
Sentiment
0
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $18.92 · Bull $24.60 · Bear $13.24Analysis 2025-10-23; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-10 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2025-10-23 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-10
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-10
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-10. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade F · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $90.69
Why
Momentum25 · Δ7d -0.8
Value58 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment0 · Δ7d 0.0
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.0.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Loss of distribution or competitive pressure
- • Macro slowdown reducing discretionary travel
- • Weak leisure demand or membership attrition compresses revenue and multiples toward low‑teens per share.
Catalyst clock
No dated catalyst is available.
Quarterly earnings release
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
25
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
-0.8
Δ21d
-36.3
Value
58
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
-1.4
Sentiment
0
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
0.0
Why this grade
Composite grade F. Momentum 25.2 / Value 58.1 / Sentiment 0.0
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2025-10-23. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
70%
Probability
Target price
$18.92
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2025-10-23 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
15%
Probability
Target price
$13.24
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2025-10-23 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$4.51B
Beta
1.40
Shares Out
61.2M
P/E (TTM)
12.1
P/S (TTM)
1.19
P/FCF (TTM)
13.19
Rev YoY
+4.4%
EPS YoY
+5.9%
Gross Margin
+30.1%
Op Margin
+17.6%
Net Debt
$5.31B
Current Ratio
6.47
As of 2026-09-10 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data