B+
Bull case
15%
Probability
Target price
$24.60
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2025-10-23 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
TNL
Travel + LeisureFNYSE / Consumer Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Membership growth, margin recovery, and distribution wins drive >25% upside vs. the recent close.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta 0.0.
What can break
Loss of distribution or competitive pressure
Momentum
25
Value
58
Sentiment
0
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $18.92 · Bull $24.60 · Bear $13.24Analysis 2025-10-23; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2025-10-23 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade F · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $90.85
Why
Momentum25 · Δ7d -9.4
Value58 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment0 · Δ7d 0.0
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta 0.0.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Loss of distribution or competitive pressure
- • Macro slowdown reducing discretionary travel
- • Weak leisure demand or membership attrition compresses revenue and multiples toward low‑teens per share.
Catalyst clock
No dated catalyst is available.
Quarterly earnings release
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
25
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-9.4
Δ21d
-23.7
Value
58
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
-1.5
Sentiment
0
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
0.0
Why this grade
Composite grade F. Momentum 25.5 / Value 58.1 / Sentiment 0.0
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2025-10-23. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
70%
Probability
Target price
$18.92
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2025-10-23 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
15%
Probability
Target price
$13.24
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2025-10-23 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$4.51B
Beta
1.40
Shares Out
61.2M
P/E (TTM)
12.1
P/S (TTM)
1.19
P/FCF (TTM)
13.19
Rev YoY
+4.4%
EPS YoY
+5.9%
Gross Margin
+30.1%
Op Margin
+17.6%
Net Debt
$5.31B
Current Ratio
6.47
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data