B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$115.00
+15.2% vs current
TMP
Tompkins FinancialBNYSE American / Banks
Last Price
At close
2026-08-01
AI scenario view
RankAlpha Sentiment CodexPost-earnings T+3Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$104.00
+4.2% vs current
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$84.00
-15.9% vs current
AI sentiment snapshot
Latest data as of 2026-07-28
Recent news sentiment (30D)
+13.1
Positive
Company
-
Unavailable
Macro
+15.9
Positive
Pulse
-32.0
Negative
Sentiment proxy
+46.4
Score
AI commentary
Primary-source earnings tone is positive, but the evidence is concentrated in the Q2 release and filing. The 2026-07-28 8-K confirms KBW conference materials were furnished, but the packet provides no substantive presentation excerpt. Missing analyst revisions, transcript context, and social coverage warrant monitoring rather than high-conviction extrapolation. [#8-K-2026-07-28]
RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-07-28
Open post-earnings memoEvidence flagged
No evidence quality warning is currently attached to this memo.
Impact
standard
Confidence
-
AI events
2026-07-29eventQ2 2026 record earningsMedium impact
Tompkins reported diluted EPS of $2.04 and net income of $29.3 million for Q2 2026, marking a third consecutive record quarter. The primary-source excerpt supports the reported results; post-print analyst revisions remain unavailable. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-24]
2026-10-23catalystImproved banking operating momentumHigh impact
Q2 net interest margin was 3.58%, up 50 basis points year over year; loans rose 6.9% year over year, net interest income rose 23%, and Tier 1 capital improved to 10.69%. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-24]
2026-10-26catalystDividend increaseMedium impact
Management approved a third-quarter 2026 dividend increase of 13% versus the comparable 2025 dividend, supported by stronger results and capital. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-24]
Recommendation
N/A
No formal recommendation provided.
As of 2026-07-28 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology