TMHC

Taylor Morrison HomeC

NYSE / Consumer Durables & Apparel

At close

2026-07-18

Current thesis

The constructive view is that Q1 showed better-than-feared execution: adjusted EPS was $1.12, backlog expanded sequentially, incentives eased versus Q4, spec inventory fell, and management still reaffirmed full-year 2026 guidance despite a soft housing backdrop.

Posture

Mixed

Lead driver

Value

What changed

Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-07-21.

What can break

Capital deployment is heavy, with approximately $2 billion of planned 2026 land investment and continued share repurchases, so a weaker demand environment could reduce flexibility.

Momentum

Value

Sentiment

Setup hits (3d)

0 · Net Neutral

AI TargetsBase $62.00 · Bull $70.00 · Bear $49.00

Earnings

2026-07-21

Data freshness

Prices

As of 2026-07-18

Fundamentals

As of 2026-07-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1

Scores

As of 2026-07-18 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP

AI Memo

As of 2026-05-15 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Investment thesis

As of 2026-07-18

Supporting evidence

What

Grade C · Mixed

Confidence Medium · Net Neutral

Target $76.60

Why

Momentum60 · Δ7d -10.3

Value69 · Δ7d +0.3

Sentiment31 · Δ7d -2.9

So what

Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals

Momentum

26% active weight

Current posture

7d trendImproving

Δ7d

-10.3

Δ21d

-31.6

Value

39% active weight

Current posture

7d trendFlat

Δ7d

+0.3

Δ21d

-0.4

Sentiment

34% active weight

Current posture

7d trendSoftening

Δ7d

-2.9

Δ21d

-2.0

Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 59.6 / Value 69.2 / Sentiment 31.4

Fundamentals (TTM)

As of 2026-07-17

Market Cap

$6.64B

Beta

1.60

Shares Out

92M

P/E (TTM)

7.1

P/S (TTM)

0.69

P/FCF (TTM)

10.11

Rev YoY

-26.8%

EPS YoY

-51.2%

Gross Margin

+22.3%

Op Margin

+13.4%

Net Debt

$1.51B

Current Ratio

7.62

As of 2026-07-18 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology