B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$86.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
THFF
First FinancialBNasdaq / Banks
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Q2 earnings growth, a 4.33% net interest margin and the proposed addition of Hickory Point's deposits support upside if credit quality stabilizes and merger savings materialize. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-28] Q2 release Merger release
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-27.
What can break
First Illinois closing requires approvals; projected savings and EPS accretion may not be realized on schedule. Merger release Transaction presentation
Momentum
54
Value
60
Sentiment
53
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $74.00 · Bull $86.00 · Bear $60.00Analysis 2026-10-08; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
2026-10-27
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-08 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-23
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $85.33
Why
Momentum54 · Δ7d +10.2
Value60 · Δ7d -0.3
Sentiment53 · Δ7d -3.4
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-27.
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.3.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • First Illinois closing requires approvals; projected savings and EPS accretion may not be realized on schedule. Merger release Transaction presentation
- • Loan growth includes acquisition effects, complicating interpretation of organic performance. Q2 release
- • Nonperforming loans were $27.1 million versus $9.8 million a year earlier, while the proposed merger adds approval, dilution and integration risk.
Catalyst clock
2026-10-27
Credit-quality follow-through
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
54
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+10.2
Δ21d
+7.5
Value
60
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.3
Δ21d
+1.8
Sentiment
53
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-3.4
Δ21d
-27.5
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 54.3 / Value 60.3 / Sentiment 52.6
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-08. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$74.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$60.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-23
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$911.75M
Beta
0.42
Shares Out
11.89M
P/E (TTM)
9.7
P/S (TTM)
2.85
P/FCF (TTM)
14.66
Rev YoY
+12.6%
EPS YoY
+21.9%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
+28.8%
Net Debt
$357.85M
Current Ratio
0.08
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data