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TFIN

Triumph FinancialB
NYSE / Banks
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The revenue beat, 30.9% transportation growth, improving factoring margin, deposit growth, and management's mid-teens organic-growth commentary support a constructive operating thesis. LoadPay and Intelligence provide longer-duration upside if investments convert into margin and earnings.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +9.1.
What can break
Banking added approximately $600 million of mortgage-warehouse servicing deposits, but related excess earnings rebates created about $12.3 million of interest expense, making margin interpretation noisy. [#IR-2026-07-21]
Momentum
26
Value
39
Sentiment
82
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $84.00 · Bull $100.00 · Bear $65.00Analysis 2026-07-24; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-07-24 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $85.80
Why
Momentum26 · Δ7d -8.8
Value39 · Δ7d +0.8
Sentiment82 · Δ7d +9.1
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +9.1.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Banking added approximately $600 million of mortgage-warehouse servicing deposits, but related excess earnings rebates created about $12.3 million of interest expense, making margin interpretation noisy. [#IR-2026-07-21]
  • • Freight demand is not strong by historical standards, so current benefits may reflect supply reduction and higher invoice prices rather than a broad demand recovery. [#IR-2026-07-21]
  • • EPS was only in line, Payments EBITDA margin remained below its long-term target, Intelligence gross margin declined quarter over quarter, and Q2 included $3.8 million of pretax non-core expenses.

Catalyst clock

2026-07-21

Q2 earnings were revenue-positive, but EPS only met consensus

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
26
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-8.8
Δ21d
-12.9
Value
39
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.8
Δ21d
+0.9
Sentiment
82
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+9.1
Δ21d
+17.0
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 26.1 / Value 39.1 / Sentiment 81.7

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-07-24. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$100.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-24 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$84.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-24 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$65.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-24 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$1.86B
Beta
1.52
Shares Out
23.89M
P/E (TTM)
231.1
P/S (TTM)
3.67
P/FCF (TTM)
144.82
Rev YoY
+14.9%
EPS YoY
+187.5%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
+9.3%
Net Debt
$350.39M
Current Ratio
0.17
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data