B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$100.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-24 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
TFIN
Triumph FinancialBNYSE / Banks
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The revenue beat, 30.9% transportation growth, improving factoring margin, deposit growth, and management's mid-teens organic-growth commentary support a constructive operating thesis. LoadPay and Intelligence provide longer-duration upside if investments convert into margin and earnings.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +4.3.
What can break
Banking added approximately $600 million of mortgage-warehouse servicing deposits, but related excess earnings rebates created about $12.3 million of interest expense, making margin interpretation noisy. [#IR-2026-07-21]
Momentum
23
Value
39
Sentiment
83
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $84.00 · Bull $100.00 · Bear $65.00Analysis 2026-07-24; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-11 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-07-24 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-11
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-11
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-11. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $85.80
Why
Momentum23 · Δ7d -7.5
Value39 · Δ7d +1.3
Sentiment83 · Δ7d +4.3
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +4.3.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Banking added approximately $600 million of mortgage-warehouse servicing deposits, but related excess earnings rebates created about $12.3 million of interest expense, making margin interpretation noisy. [#IR-2026-07-21]
- • Freight demand is not strong by historical standards, so current benefits may reflect supply reduction and higher invoice prices rather than a broad demand recovery. [#IR-2026-07-21]
- • EPS was only in line, Payments EBITDA margin remained below its long-term target, Intelligence gross margin declined quarter over quarter, and Q2 included $3.8 million of pretax non-core expenses.
Catalyst clock
2026-07-21
Q2 earnings were revenue-positive, but EPS only met consensus
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
23
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-7.5
Δ21d
-21.3
Value
39
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+1.3
Δ21d
-0.7
Sentiment
83
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+4.3
Δ21d
+18.0
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 23.2 / Value 39.1 / Sentiment 82.7
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-07-24. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$84.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-24 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$65.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-24 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$1.86B
Beta
1.52
Shares Out
23.89M
P/E (TTM)
231.1
P/S (TTM)
3.67
P/FCF (TTM)
144.82
Rev YoY
+14.9%
EPS YoY
+187.5%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
+9.3%
Net Debt
$350.39M
Current Ratio
0.17
As of 2026-09-11 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data