B+
Bull case
0%
Probability
Target price
$98.00
+30.8% vs current
TDW
TidewaterCNYSE / Energy
Last Price
At close
2026-06-02
AI scenario view
RankAlpha Sentiment CodexMost likely
B
Base case
0%
Probability
Target price
$86.00
+14.8% vs current
B-
Bear case
0%
Probability
Target price
$64.00
-14.6% vs current
AI sentiment snapshot
Latest data as of 2026-05-09
Recent news sentiment (30D)
+27.0
Positive
Company
-
Unavailable
Macro
+27.0
Positive
Pulse
+35.0
Positive
Sentiment proxy
+61.3
Score
AI commentary
Sentiment is mildly positive but still monitoring-style. Primary-source news was dominated by the May 4, 2026 earnings release, which showed operational outperformance and reiterated guidance, while trusted secondary coverage emphasized an EPS miss versus consensus. Checked market coverage also showed TDW quoted around $87.11 on May 4, 2026, versus the packet anchor of $77.86 on May 7, 2026, implying a softer immediate post-print tape. Broad post-earnings analyst revision data was not clearly available in the checked evidence, so confidence should stay moderate rather than aggressive.
RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-05-09
Open full AI memoEvidence flagged
No evidence quality warning is currently attached to this memo.
Impact
standard
Confidence
-
AI events
2026-06-30eventWilson Sons Ultratug closing remains the key near-term step-upHigh impact
Management said it still expects to close the Wilson Sons Ultratug acquisition by the end of Q2 2026 and reiterated full-year guidance on a pro forma basis, keeping Brazil scale expansion as the main company-specific event to watch [#8-K-2026-05-04].
2026-06-30catalystQ1 operating beat with reiterated 2026 guideMedium impact
Tidewater's May 4, 2026 earnings release said Q1 revenue was $326.2 million, adjusted EBITDA was $129.3 million, free cash flow was $34.4 million, and management reiterated 2026 revenue guidance of $1.43-$1.48 billion and gross margin guidance of 49%-51%; management also said revenue, gross margin, day rate, and utilization outperformed expectations despite FX pressure [#8-K-2026-05-04].
2026-12-31catalystOSV tightening and term-rate inflection could support 2H26 re-ratingHigh impact
Management said North Sea AHTS conditions were particularly tight, that weighted-average term contract day rate increased for the first time since Q2 2025, and that offshore demand looks better into the back half of 2026 and 2027, which supports a longer-duration day-rate and utilization thesis if costs stabilize [#8-K-2026-05-04].
Recommendation
N/A
No formal recommendation provided.
As of 2026-05-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology