B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$10.00
+19.5% vs current
SXC
SunCoke EnergyANYSE / Materials
Last Price
At close
2026-07-18
AI scenario view
RankAlpha Sentiment CodexMost likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$8.60
+2.7% vs current
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$6.50
-22.3% vs current
AI sentiment snapshot
Latest data as of 2026-07-10
Recent news sentiment (30D)
+17.9
Positive
Company
-
Unavailable
Macro
+18.5
Positive
Pulse
-45.0
Negative
Sentiment proxy
+45.4
Score
AI commentary
Recent tone is still dominated by the April 30, 2026 earnings release. Company-source evidence is mixed: SunCoke reaffirmed FY2026 EBITDA guidance, maintained its dividend, and highlighted finalized full-year spot coke sales, but Q1 EPS fell to a loss and domestic coke EBITDA was pressured by weather, the Middletown turbine failure, and Haverhill I [#SEC-8K-2026-04-30]. Secondary post-earnings coverage suggested revenue expectations improved while EPS expectations were cut and the median target stayed at $9.50 [#PR-EARNINGS-2026-05-02]. With low analyst coverage, no usable social packet, and a negative deterministic prior, this remains a cautious monitoring setup rather than a high-conviction rerating call.
RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-07-10
Open full AI memoEvidence flagged
No evidence quality warning is currently attached to this memo.
Impact
standard
Confidence
-
AI events
2026-07-31catalystQ2 recovery test after weather and turbine disruptionHigh impact
The clearest near-term swing factor is whether SunCoke recovers the Q1 operational drag from severe winter weather, the Middletown turbine failure, and the Haverhill I shutdown while holding full-year expectations. Company materials for the April 30, 2026 earnings update showed Q1 2026 Adjusted EBITDA of $56.5 million, reaffirmed FY2026 consolidated Adjusted EBITDA guidance of $230 million to $250 million, and tied the Q1 shortfall to those operational issues [#SEC-8K-2026-04-30].
2026-12-31eventContracted coke book and dividend support a downside floor, but only if execution stabilizesMedium impact
SunCoke disclosed that all spot blast and foundry coke sales were finalized for the full year and declared its 27th consecutive quarterly dividend of $0.12 per share in the Q1 earnings materials, which supports baseline cash-flow visibility but is unlikely to rerate the stock without cleaner operating follow-through [#SEC-8K-2026-04-30].
2026-12-31catalystPhoenix integration must offset weaker domestic coke profitabilityHigh impact
The longer-duration debate is whether Industrial Services growth and Phoenix-related synergies can outweigh pressure in domestic coke. Company Q1 materials showed Industrial Services Adjusted EBITDA up to $26.2 million from $13.7 million year over year, while Domestic Coke Adjusted EBITDA fell to $35.3 million from $49.9 million; management also kept pointing to Phoenix as a 2026 earnings driver [#SEC-8K-2026-04-30].
Recommendation
N/A
No formal recommendation provided.
As of 2026-07-10 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology