B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$170.73
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-05 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
STZ
Constellation BrandsANYSE / Food Beverage & Tobacco
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Beer remains a leading dollar-share gainer, with pricing and shipment growth supporting sales, while organic wine and spirits trends improved. The company also maintained its comparable EPS and free-cash-flow outlook.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
1 setup hits (3d) with net bearish as of 2026-09-09.
What can break
Fiscal 2027 cash-flow and leverage objectives depend on continued execution and disciplined capital allocation. [#SEC-8K-2026-06-30]
Momentum
29
Value
65
Sentiment
87
Setup hits (3d)
1 · Net Bearish
AI TargetsBase $140.00 · Bull $170.73 · Bear $110.00Analysis 2026-08-05; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-08 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-05 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-08
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-08
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-08. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Bearish
Target $170.73
Why
Momentum29 · Δ7d -2.2
Value65 · Δ7d +0.3
Sentiment87 · Δ7d +6.8
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Bearish). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • 1 setup hits (3d) with net bearish as of 2026-09-09.
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +6.8.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Fiscal 2027 cash-flow and leverage objectives depend on continued execution and disciplined capital allocation. [#SEC-8K-2026-06-30]
- • Recent Form 4 activity includes officer and director sales; this is a secondary signal and not evidence of operating deterioration. [#SEC-FORM4-2026-05-13]
- • Reported enterprise sales declined 3%, beer depletions declined 0.3%, mix and spending pressures limited margin expansion, and reported wine and spirits sales fell 47% after divestitures.
Catalyst clock
2026-06-30
Q1 FY2027 execution and outlook support
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
29
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-2.2
Δ21d
+8.4
Value
65
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.3
Δ21d
-1.2
Sentiment
87
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+6.8
Δ21d
+11.3
Why this grade
Composite grade A. Momentum 28.7 / Value 65.0 / Sentiment 87.4
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-05. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
55%
Probability
Target price
$140.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-05 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$110.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-05 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$16.91B
Beta
0.44
Shares Out
170.75M
P/E (TTM)
20.8
P/S (TTM)
2.58
P/FCF (TTM)
22.07
Rev YoY
-3.3%
EPS YoY
+30.8%
Gross Margin
+50.6%
Op Margin
+30.3%
Net Debt
$11.1B
Current Ratio
0.91
As of 2026-09-08 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data