B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$155.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
STZ
Constellation BrandsCNYSE / Food Beverage & Tobacco
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Q2 comparable EPS beat the $3.55 FactSet consensus cited by Investing.com, beer gained tracked-channel share, and first-half free cash flow reached $1.1 billion. Goldman Sachs retained Buy despite cutting its target to $155 from $180; BMO reportedly reiterated a $190 target on October 8.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -1.0.
What can break
Beer depletions declined 0.6% despite 5.5% shipment growth; distributor restocking may not translate into sustained consumer demand. Modelo Especial and Corona Extra depletions declined approximately 2% and 5%, respectively, partly offset by growth in Pacifico and Victoria. [#SEC-8K-2026-10-06] Company earnings exhibit
Momentum
69
Value
60
Sentiment
48
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $130.00 · Bull $155.00 · Bear $100.00Analysis 2026-10-09; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-09 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-23
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $149.86
Why
Momentum69 · Δ7d +35.8
Value60 · Δ7d -1.0
Sentiment48 · Δ7d -4.5
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -1.0.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Beer depletions declined 0.6% despite 5.5% shipment growth; distributor restocking may not translate into sustained consumer demand. Modelo Especial and Corona Extra depletions declined approximately 2% and 5%, respectively, partly offset by growth in Pacifico and Victoria. [#SEC-8K-2026-10-06] Company earnings exhibit
- • FY27 comparable EPS guidance was unchanged after the Q2 beat, while beer operating income grew more slowly than beer sales. [#SEC-8K-2026-10-06] Company earnings exhibit
- • Beer shipments outpaced falling depletions, and unchanged FY27 comparable EPS guidance despite the Q2 beat raises questions about second-half margins and demand.
Catalyst clock
2026-10-09
Post-earnings reassessment of the FY27 outlook
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
69
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+35.8
Δ21d
+42.2
Value
60
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-1.0
Δ21d
-2.3
Sentiment
48
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-4.5
Δ21d
-23.1
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 69.2 / Value 59.6 / Sentiment 47.7
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-09. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$130.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$100.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-23
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$23.47B
Beta
0.44
Shares Out
169.2M
P/E (TTM)
20.8
P/S (TTM)
2.58
P/FCF (TTM)
22.07
Rev YoY
-3.3%
EPS YoY
+30.8%
Gross Margin
+50.6%
Op Margin
+30.3%
Net Debt
$11.1B
Current Ratio
0.91
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data