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STUB

StubHubD
NYSE / Media & Entertainment
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Record Q2 volume and EBITDA, raised GMS guidance and lower leverage support upside if demand remains strong beyond the World Cup [#SEC-8K-2026-08-12]. Citi's September Buy upgrade offers some support, though its target was lowered.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.0.
What can break
Higher GMS guidance without higher adjusted EBITDA guidance leaves margin conversion uncertain [#SEC-8K-2026-08-12].
Momentum
11
Value
49
Sentiment
52
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $5.25 · Bull $8.00 · Bear $3.50Analysis 2026-09-29; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-27 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-27 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-29 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-27

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-27. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $10.59
Why
Momentum11 · Δ7d +3.8
Value49 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment52 · Δ7d +3.4
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.

Confirming evidence

  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.0.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Higher GMS guidance without higher adjusted EBITDA guidance leaves margin conversion uncertain [#SEC-8K-2026-08-12].
  • • Net leverage of 3.0x remains material despite Q2 improvement [#SEC-8K-2026-08-12].
  • • BofA's post-Q2 downgrade in stored secondary coverage reflects concern about a World Cup-driven demand pull-forward; unchanged EBITDA guidance despite higher GMS guidance leaves margin conversion to prove.

Catalyst clock

2026-10-31

Conflicting analyst revisions

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
11
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+3.8
Δ21d
+7.3
Value
49
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
-0.1
Sentiment
52
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+3.4
Δ21d
-10.2
Why this grade

Composite grade D. Momentum 11.4 / Value 49.0 / Sentiment 51.6

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-29. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$8.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$5.25
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
35%
Probability
Target price
$3.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-27
Market Cap
$2.12B
Beta
-
Shares Out
382.09M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-1.0
P/S (TTM)
-
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
3.29
Rev YoY
+33.2%
EPS YoY
-100.0%
Gross Margin
+80.5%
Op Margin
-64.5%
Net Debt
$265.37M
Current Ratio
1.04
As of 2026-10-27 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data