B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$215.00
+17.8% vs current
STT
State StreetANYSE / Financial Services
Last Price
At close
2026-07-18
AI scenario view
RankAlpha Sentiment CodexPost-earnings T+1Most likely
B
Base case
55%
Probability
Target price
$193.00
+5.8% vs current
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$165.00
-9.6% vs current
AI sentiment snapshot
Latest data as of 2026-07-17
Recent news sentiment (30D)
+23.9
Positive
Company
-
Unavailable
Macro
+25.2
Positive
Pulse
-30.0
Negative
Sentiment proxy
+51.6
Score
AI commentary
T+1 post-earnings tone is positive: primary company materials confirm a strong beat, improved FY2026 outlook and new medium-term targets, while secondary coverage reported an initial share-price rise of about 2%. Post-print analyst revisions and target changes remain unavailable, and social coverage is absent; the stock is already near the available median target, so follow-through should be monitored rather than assumed.
RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-07-17
Open post-earnings memoEvidence flagged
high-coverage report lacks a dated company-specific catalyst beyond generic cadence
Impact
tentative
Confidence
-
AI events
2026-06-24eventCapital return supportMedium impact
State Street returned $631 million to common shareholders in 2Q26 and previously announced an intended 10% increase in the third-quarter common dividend to $0.92 per share, subject to board approval. The company also said its stress-capital buffer remained at the 2.5% floor. [#IR-2026-06-24] [#IR-2026-07-16]
2026-07-16event2Q26 earnings beat with upgraded FY2026 outlookMedium impact
State Street reported 2Q26 EPS of $3.65, revenue of $4.048 billion, record AUC/A of $57.9 trillion and AUM of $6.3 trillion. Secondary coverage reported a consensus beat, while the company raised FY2026 fee-revenue growth outlook to approximately 12%-13% from 7%-9% and NII growth to 14%-15% from 8%-10%. The release was confirmed in the July 16 8-K and company IR materials. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-16] [#IR-2026-07-16]
2026-07-16catalystServicing wins, asset flows and backlog conversionMedium impact
2Q26 included $87 million of new servicing-fee wins, $384 billion of AUC/A wins, $335 million of servicing revenue to be installed, $2.9 trillion of AUC/A to be installed, $114 billion of net AUM inflows and approximately 14% software-services ARR growth. Conversion timing remains uncertain. [#IR-2026-07-16]
Recommendation
N/A
No formal recommendation provided.
As of 2026-07-17 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology