B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$34.00
+24.1% vs current
STRZ
Starz EntertainmentANasdaq / Media & Entertainment
Last Price
At close
2026-07-18
AI scenario view
RankAlpha Sentiment CodexMost likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$28.00
+2.2% vs current
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$22.00
-19.7% vs current
AI sentiment snapshot
Latest data as of 2026-06-30
Recent news sentiment (30D)
+0.2
Mixed
Company
-
Unavailable
Macro
-
Unavailable
Pulse
-
Unavailable
Sentiment proxy
+50.5
Score
AI commentary
Near-term tone is cautiously constructive because the only strong primary-source update was a Q1 release that emphasized cash-flow improvement, reiterated 2026 guidance, and accelerated the margin timeline [#SEC-8K-2026-05-07]. But confidence should stay moderate-to-low: analyst coverage is thin, the packet's price-target summary sits slightly below the anchor price, and the most visible post-earnings revision signal was mixed rather than decisively positive [#PR-EARNINGS-2026-05-11].
RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-06-30
Open full AI memoEvidence flagged
No evidence quality warning is currently attached to this memo.
Impact
standard
Confidence
-
AI events
2026-07-31catalystPost-earnings estimate revisions remain mixed despite higher price targetsMedium impact
Secondary earnings follow-up coverage indicated analysts broadly held revenue expectations near $1.26 billion but sharply increased expected losses, while average price targets moved higher, suggesting valuation support is relying on one-off loss treatment and future cash-flow normalization rather than clean earnings momentum [#PR-EARNINGS-2026-05-11].
2026-08-01eventQ1 print reinforced cash-flow and leverage plan while keeping 2026 outlook intactHigh impact
STARZ reported Q1 2026 revenue of $306.9 million, operating cash flow of $73.2 million, equity free cash flow of $68.7 million, and reiterated 2026 targets including positive OTT revenue growth, low-single-digit Adjusted OIBDA growth, $80 million to $120 million unlevered free cash flow, and leverage near 2.7x exiting 2026; management also pulled forward its 20% Adjusted OIBDA margin outlook to 2H27 [#SEC-8K-2026-05-07].
2026-12-31catalystMargin expansion and debt reduction remain the core rerating pathHigh impact
The primary company evidence points to a structurally improved cash profile, with net debt of $523.0 million, an undrawn $150.0 million revolver, and management explicitly framing OTT growth, margin expansion, and leverage reduction as the long-term value-creation path [#SEC-8K-2026-05-07].
Recommendation
N/A
No formal recommendation provided.
As of 2026-06-30 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology