B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$70.00
+51.9% vs current
STEP
StepStone GroupCNasdaq / Financial Services
Last Price
At close
2026-06-02
AI scenario view
RankAlpha Sentiment CodexPost-earnings T+3Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$58.00
+25.9% vs current
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$45.00
-2.3% vs current
AI sentiment snapshot
Latest data as of 2026-05-23
Recent news sentiment (30D)
+18.4
Positive
Company
+23.6
Positive
Macro
+18.7
Positive
Pulse
-32.0
Negative
Sentiment proxy
+74.6
Score
AI commentary
This is a tentative post-earnings monitoring view. The primary FY26 print was constructive on recurring fees and capital return, but the packet does not provide a primary-source forward guide or enough direct peer evidence to support a stronger catalyst-driven call. Analyst and market-reaction evidence should be treated as secondary and incomplete until revisions and price action are confirmed over several sessions.
RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-05-23
Open post-earnings memoEvidence flagged
No evidence quality warning is currently attached to this memo.
Impact
standard
Confidence
-
AI events
2026-05-20eventQ4/FY26 print confirmed recurring-fee growth and a larger dividendMedium impact
The May 20 8-K/press release showed management and advisory fees up 22% y/y in Q4, FY26 fee revenues up 21% to $931.6m, FRE up 14% to $354.4m, AUM up to $233.3b, and a board action declaring both a $0.28 quarterly dividend and a $0.55 supplemental dividend [#8-K-2026-05-20].
2026-05-23catalystPost-print analyst follow-through is supportive but not decisiveMedium impact
Available post-print coverage indicates target changes were mixed rather than a clean upward revision cycle. This supports monitoring for estimate follow-through after the FY26 print, but the packet does not provide enough primary or consensus evidence to treat analyst revisions as a standalone bullish catalyst.
2026-08-31catalystUFEC conversion into fee-earning AUM is the main company-specific monitorMedium impact
Management reported FY26 AUM of $233.3b, fee-earning AUM of $144.0b and UFEC of $40.1b in the earnings materials, so the key forward monitor is whether that committed but not yet fee-earning capital converts into recurring fee revenue; timing is not directly guided in the packet, so this remains a lower-conviction watch item rather than a dated catalyst [#8-K-2026-05-20].
Recommendation
N/A
No formal recommendation provided.
As of 2026-05-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology