B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$70.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-23 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
STEP
StepStone GroupBNasdaq / Financial Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
AI scenario view
RankAlpha Sentiment CodexPost-earnings T+3Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$58.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-23 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$45.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-23 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
The current persistence contract does not provide an exact AI reference price. RankAlpha therefore does not calculate scenario return from the live quote. How scenarios are presented
AI sentiment snapshot
Latest data as of 2026-05-23
Recent news sentiment (30D)
+27.1
Positive
Company
-
Unavailable
Macro
+27.1
Positive
Pulse
-
Unavailable
Weekly research (10D)
-32.0
Negative
Sentiment proxy
+82.8
Score
AI commentary
This is a tentative post-earnings monitoring view. The primary FY26 print was constructive on recurring fees and capital return, but the packet does not provide a primary-source forward guide or enough direct peer evidence to support a stronger catalyst-driven call. Analyst and market-reaction evidence should be treated as secondary and incomplete until revisions and price action are confirmed over several sessions.
RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-05-23
Open post-earnings memoEvidence flagged
No evidence quality warning is currently attached to this memo.
Impact
standard
Confidence
-
AI events
2026-05-20eventQ4/FY26 print confirmed recurring-fee growth and a larger dividendMedium impact
The May 20 8-K/press release showed management and advisory fees up 22% y/y in Q4, FY26 fee revenues up 21% to $931.6m, FRE up 14% to $354.4m, AUM up to $233.3b, and a board action declaring both a $0.28 quarterly dividend and a $0.55 supplemental dividend [#8-K-2026-05-20].
2026-05-23catalystPost-print analyst follow-through is supportive but not decisiveMedium impact
Available post-print coverage indicates target changes were mixed rather than a clean upward revision cycle. This supports monitoring for estimate follow-through after the FY26 print, but the packet does not provide enough primary or consensus evidence to treat analyst revisions as a standalone bullish catalyst.
2026-08-31catalystUFEC conversion into fee-earning AUM is the main company-specific monitorMedium impact
Management reported FY26 AUM of $233.3b, fee-earning AUM of $144.0b and UFEC of $40.1b in the earnings materials, so the key forward monitor is whether that committed but not yet fee-earning capital converts into recurring fee revenue; timing is not directly guided in the packet, so this remains a lower-conviction watch item rather than a dated catalyst [#8-K-2026-05-20].
Recommendation
N/A
No formal recommendation provided.
As of 2026-05-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology