B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$49.00
-7.8% vs current
ST
SensataBNYSE / Capital Goods
Last Price
At close
2026-06-02
AI scenario view
RankAlpha Sentiment CodexMost likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$43.00
-19.1% vs current
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$34.00
-36.0% vs current
AI sentiment snapshot
Latest data as of 2026-04-29
Recent news sentiment (30D)
+0.2
Mixed
Company
-
Unavailable
Macro
-
Unavailable
Pulse
-
Unavailable
Sentiment proxy
+28.5
Score
AI commentary
Post-earnings sentiment is mixed but not broken. On April 29, 2026, ST traded at $39.23 versus the April 28 anchor close of $41.53, a roughly 5.5% decline despite a reported beat and a constructive Q2 guide. Trusted market coverage highlighted the beat and two target raises, but broad analyst-revision depth still looks limited in the packet, so this remains a cautious earnings-digestion setup rather than a high-confidence rerating call.
RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-04-29
Open full AI memoEvidence flagged
No evidence quality warning is currently attached to this memo.
Impact
standard
Confidence
-
AI events
2026-05-15catalystQ1 beat and Q2 guide support a near-term re-rating testMedium impact
Sensata reported Q1 revenue of $934.8 million, adjusted EPS of $0.86, adjusted operating margin of 18.6%, and guided Q2 revenue to $950-$980 million with adjusted EPS of $0.89-$0.95; management said results met or exceeded expectations and pointed to productivity and strategic momentum [#8-K-2026-04-28]. Secondary earnings coverage also framed the print as ahead of consensus, but the stock sold off anyway, making the next few sessions a digestion test rather than a clean victory lap.
2026-06-30eventTariff pass-through execution is the key Q2 checkpointHigh impact
Q2 guidance assumes about $8 million of tariff recovery from customers and management said adjusted profit metrics should be neutral to tariffs under policies in effect as of April 27, 2026 [#8-K-2026-04-28]. If recovery lags, margin skepticism can persist; if execution is clean, the post-earnings selloff can reverse.
2026-09-30catalystProductivity plus ADCE growth can offset the softer auto mix if sustainedHigh impact
Q1 showed Aerospace, Defense, and Commercial Equipment revenue up to $225.8 million from $196.7 million with segment margin expanding to 28.1%, while Automotive revenue declined to $524.8 million but margin still improved to 23.5% [#8-K-2026-04-28]. A sustained mix shift toward higher-growth and higher-margin businesses would support a longer rerating, but it still needs multiple quarters of proof.
Recommendation
N/A
No formal recommendation provided.
As of 2026-04-29 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology