B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$225.00
+35.0% vs current
SMTC
SemtechANasdaq / Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment
Last Price
At close
2026-06-02
AI scenario view
RankAlpha Sentiment CodexPost-earnings T+3Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$185.00
+11.0% vs current
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$140.00
-16.0% vs current
AI sentiment snapshot
Latest data as of 2026-05-29
Recent news sentiment (30D)
+16.7
Positive
Company
+17.2
Positive
Macro
+20.7
Positive
Pulse
-62.0
Negative
Sentiment proxy
+60.5
Score
AI commentary
The post-print tape is constructive around the 166.33 anchor, but verified delayed analyst revision evidence is not available in the packet and social context is empty. Confidence stays moderate: the company source confirms a strong quarter and guide, while peer comparison remains imperfect because packet peers are mostly broad semiconductor infrastructure or supply-chain comparators rather than clean one-for-one operating peers.
RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-05-29
Open post-earnings memoEvidence flagged
peer set is too generic or lacks enough direct operating comparators; later post-earnings follow-up lacks concrete company-source and analyst/market reaction evidence
Impact
tentative
Confidence
-
AI events
2026-05-26eventQ1 FY2027 beat-and-raise printMedium impact
Semtech reported record Q1 FY2027 net sales of $291.0M, GAAP EPS of $0.27, adjusted EPS of $0.51, and guided Q2 FY2027 revenue to $328.0M +/- $5M with adjusted EPS of $0.61 +/- $0.02; management also highlighted stronger operating leverage and improving metrics [#8-K-2026-05-26].
2026-06-05catalystPost-print revision monitoringMedium impact
The earnings follow-up remains constructive, but the packet does not provide a reliable current analyst-count or verified target-change set; near-term upside depends on whether delayed estimates and ratings confirm the stronger Q2 guide and data-center ramp rather than merely restating the Q1 beat.
2026-09-30catalyst1.6T data-center ramp and backlog supportHigh impact
Management said FiberEdge and CopperEdge 1.6T revenue should layer onto the growth base, data-center growth should accelerate through the year, and bookings/backlog plus targeted R&D are aligned to customer roadmaps [#8-K-2026-05-26].
Recommendation
N/A
No formal recommendation provided.
As of 2026-05-29 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology