B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$190.00
+48.8% vs current
SMTC
SemtechBNasdaq / Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment
Last Price
At close
2026-07-18
AI scenario view
RankAlpha Sentiment CodexMost likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$145.00
+13.6% vs current
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$95.00
-25.6% vs current
AI sentiment snapshot
Latest data as of 2026-07-19
Recent news sentiment (30D)
-13.2
Negative
Company
-
Unavailable
Macro
-13.2
Negative
Pulse
-
Unavailable
Sentiment proxy
+60.7
Score
AI commentary
News tone is positive after the Q1 beat and higher Q2 outlook, but the subsequent decline from the prior baseline reference of $136.13 to $124.96 weakens market confirmation. Social, options, short-interest, and analyst-revision coverage are unavailable, so this remains a positive but monitoring-oriented setup.
RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-07-19
Open full AI memoEvidence flagged
No evidence quality warning is currently attached to this memo.
Impact
standard
Confidence
-
AI events
2026-05-26eventQ1 FY2027 beat and raised Q2 outlookMedium impact
Semtech reported record Q1 net sales of $291.0 million, adjusted gross margin of 53.0%, and adjusted EPS of $0.51; Q2 outlook calls for $328.0 million net sales and $0.61 adjusted EPS. [#SEC-8K-2026-05-26]
2026-07-06eventCredit facility supports balance-sheet flexibilityMedium impact
Semtech's July 6 filing states that credit-facility proceeds may support working capital, refinancing existing indebtedness, transaction costs, permitted acquisitions, and other investments; this is supportive of financial flexibility but not a standalone operating catalyst. [#8-K-2026-07-06]
2026-08-26catalystQ2 FY2027 results validate 1.6T rampMedium impact
Semtech's Q2 outlook calls for $328.0 million net sales, 54.0% adjusted gross margin, and $0.61 adjusted EPS; results should show whether FiberEdge and CopperEdge 1.6T revenues and bookings/backlog convert as expected. [#SEC-8K-2026-05-26]
Recommendation
N/A
No formal recommendation provided.
As of 2026-07-19 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology