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SMPL

Simply Good FoodsA
Nasdaq / Food Beverage & Tobacco
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
At $10.54, SMPL trades about 27% below the supplied median analyst target of $14.375. Quest growth pockets, inventory normalization, and successful brand reinvestment could support a recovery from depressed expectations.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +12.5.
What can break
Atkins distribution losses and declining household penetration may persist.
Momentum
18
Value
72
Sentiment
82
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $11.50 · Bull $14.38 · Bear $8.00Analysis 2026-08-27; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-11 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-27 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-11

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-11. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $14.38
Why
Momentum18 · Δ7d -0.5
Value72 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment82 · Δ7d +12.5
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +12.5.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Atkins distribution losses and declining household penetration may persist.
  • • Coverage is low and social, options, short-interest, and employee-sentiment data are unavailable.
  • • The latest company filing shows Atkins sales down 24.6%, total retail takeaway down about 6.7%, gross margin down 390 basis points, and fiscal 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance down 19%-21% year over year.

Catalyst clock

2026-11-02

Fiscal Q4 inventory normalization

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
18
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
-0.5
Δ21d
+6.9
Value
72
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
-0.3
Sentiment
82
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+12.5
Δ21d
-0.3
Why this grade

Composite grade A. Momentum 17.9 / Value 72.0 / Sentiment 82.5

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-27. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$14.38
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-27 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$11.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-27 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$8.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-27 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$958.91M
Beta
0.26
Shares Out
88.46M
P/E (TTM)
18.5
P/S (TTM)
1.23
P/FCF (TTM)
11.49
Rev YoY
-6.3%
EPS YoY
-242.9%
Gross Margin
+31.5%
Op Margin
+13.8%
Net Debt
$205.96M
Current Ratio
4.80
As of 2026-09-11 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data