B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$13.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-28 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
SMPL
Simply Good FoodsBNasdaq / Food Beverage & Tobacco
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Q4 adjusted EPS of $0.44 exceeded the $0.42 consensus reported by Investing.com, and revenue of $333.3 million exceeded its $327.9 million estimate. FY2026 operating cash flow was about $181 million, with 0.9x net debt to adjusted EBITDA.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.5.
What can break
Atkins and OWYN retail-takeaway declines and velocity-related distribution pressure could persist despite marketing investment. [#SEC-8K-2026-10-27] Company earnings release
Momentum
49
Value
72
Sentiment
51
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $10.00 · Bull $13.00 · Bear $7.20Analysis 2026-10-28; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-27 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-28 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-28 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-28
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-28
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-28. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $12.50
Why
Momentum49 · Δ7d +1.4
Value72 · Δ7d +0.5
Sentiment51 · Δ7d +14.1
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.5.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Atkins and OWYN retail-takeaway declines and velocity-related distribution pressure could persist despite marketing investment. [#SEC-8K-2026-10-27] Company earnings release
- • FY2026 included $331 million of non-cash goodwill and brand-asset impairments, reflecting weaker performance and revised revenue projections. Company earnings release
- • The modest Q4 beat is outweighed by management's FY2027 outlook for a 13%–17% sales decline and 9%–14% adjusted-EBITDA decline.
Catalyst clock
2027-01-31
Fiscal Q1 2027 tests the turnaround
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
49
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+1.4
Δ21d
+31.9
Value
72
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.5
Δ21d
+0.2
Sentiment
51
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+14.1
Δ21d
-3.0
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 48.9 / Value 72.0 / Sentiment 51.3
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-28. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$10.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-28 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$7.20
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-28 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-27
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-27
Market Cap
$862.49M
Beta
0.26
Shares Out
88.46M
P/E (TTM)
18.5
P/S (TTM)
1.23
P/FCF (TTM)
11.49
Rev YoY
-6.3%
EPS YoY
-242.9%
Gross Margin
+31.5%
Op Margin
+13.8%
Net Debt
$205.96M
Current Ratio
4.80
As of 2026-10-28 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data