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SM

SM EnergyA
NYSE / Energy
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Higher production guidance, $467 million of Q2 adjusted free cash flow, actioned synergies and note retirements support a potential cash-flow and balance-sheet re-rating if execution persists. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-05] [#8-K-2026-09-04]
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
6 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-28.
What can break
Actioned merger synergies may not all become durable realized savings by year-end. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-05]
Momentum
87
Value
69
Sentiment
52
Setup hits (3d)
6 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $34.00 · Bull $42.00 · Bear $25.00Analysis 2026-09-29; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
2026-11-03 · AMC
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-28 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-28 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-29 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-28

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-28. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $47.11
Why
Momentum87 · Δ7d +7.0
Value69 · Δ7d -0.2
Sentiment52 · Δ7d +0.3
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Bullish). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • 6 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-28.
  • • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-11-03 · AMC.
  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.2.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Actioned merger synergies may not all become durable realized savings by year-end. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-05]
  • • Analyst target coverage and detailed post-earnings revisions are unavailable in the packet.
  • • Commodity and hedge exposure, remaining integration work and substantial capital spending could prevent Q2 cash generation from recurring.

Catalyst clock

2026-11-03 · AMC

Third-quarter production tests raised outlook

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
87
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+7.0
Δ21d
+12.7
Value
69
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.2
Δ21d
-1.1
Sentiment
52
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.3
Δ21d
-16.1
Why this grade

Composite grade A. Momentum 87.4 / Value 69.2 / Sentiment 52.0

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-29. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$42.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$34.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$25.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-28
Market Cap
$9.41B
Beta
1.14
Shares Out
237.85M
P/E (TTM)
2.9
P/S (TTM)
0.65
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
10.81
Rev YoY
+215.3%
EPS YoY
+154.1%
Gross Margin
+42.4%
Op Margin
+37.4%
Net Debt
$2.49B
Current Ratio
0.62
As of 2026-10-28 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data