SM

SM EnergyB

NYSE / Energy

At close

2026-07-20

Current thesis

The post-earnings bull case is that SM converted the Civitas combination into an early operating beat versus company guidance: production exceeded the guide midpoint, the synergy target moved up to $375 million, and full-year production guidance was raised while capex was held flat. If Q2 confirms that second-half run-rate and divestiture-funded deleveraging are real, the stock could move closer to the packet's $32.1538 median target.

Posture

Constructive

Lead driver

Value

What changed

Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.7.

What can break

Commodity-price and hedge-book volatility can overwhelm operating gains, as shown by the large Q1 derivative loss.

Momentum

Value

Sentiment

Setup hits (3d)

0 · Net Neutral

AI TargetsBase $31.50 · Bull $35.00 · Bear $24.50

Data freshness

Prices

As of 2026-07-20

Fundamentals

As of 2026-07-20 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1

Scores

As of 2026-07-20 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP

AI Memo

As of 2026-05-09 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Investment thesis

As of 2026-07-20

Supporting evidence

What

Grade B · Constructive

Confidence Medium · Net Neutral

Target $40.13

Why

Momentum53 · Δ7d +27.1

Value66 · Δ7d -0.7

Sentiment51 · Δ7d -16.1

So what

Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals

Momentum

26% active weight

Current posture

7d trendImproving

Δ7d

+27.1

Δ21d

+36.3

Value

39% active weight

Current posture

7d trendFlat

Δ7d

-0.7

Δ21d

-1.3

Sentiment

34% active weight

Current posture

7d trendSoftening

Δ7d

-16.1

Δ21d

-19.8

Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 53.1 / Value 66.0 / Sentiment 50.6

Fundamentals (TTM)

As of 2026-07-20

Market Cap

$7.5B

Beta

1.14

Shares Out

239.75M

P/E (TTM)

2.9

P/S (TTM)

0.65

P/FCF (TTM) · Derived

8.62

Rev YoY

+75.1%

EPS YoY

-206.2%

Gross Margin

+33.3%

Op Margin

+33.4%

Net Debt

$2.49B

Current Ratio

0.39

As of 2026-07-20 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology