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SM

SM EnergyA
NYSE / Energy
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Q2 execution, raised second-half production guidance, synergy capture, debt reduction, and shareholder returns could support modest rerating if sustained. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-05]
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
8 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
What can break
Commodity-price and derivative-settlement volatility could pressure earnings and cash flow. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-16]
Momentum
88
Value
70
Sentiment
68
Setup hits (3d)
8 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $39.50 · Bull $44.00 · Bear $31.50Analysis 2026-09-03; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-03 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $41.94
Why
Momentum88 · Δ7d +3.4
Value70 · Δ7d +0.1
Sentiment68 · Δ7d +12.2
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Bullish). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • 8 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +12.2.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Commodity-price and derivative-settlement volatility could pressure earnings and cash flow. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-16]
  • • Failure to deliver the raised second-half production outlook or maintain capital discipline could weaken the thesis. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-05]
  • • Commodity and hedge volatility, integration execution, and the lack of verified post-print analyst revisions limit confidence in a durable upside thesis.

Catalyst clock

2026-09-21

Quarterly dividend payment

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
88
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+3.4
Δ21d
+6.6
Value
70
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.1
Δ21d
+3.8
Sentiment
68
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+12.2
Δ21d
+3.9
Why this grade

Composite grade A. Momentum 88.2 / Value 69.9 / Sentiment 67.7

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-03. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$44.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$39.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$31.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$8.44B
Beta
1.14
Shares Out
237.85M
P/E (TTM)
2.9
P/S (TTM)
0.65
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
9.69
Rev YoY
+215.3%
EPS YoY
+154.1%
Gross Margin
+42.4%
Op Margin
+37.4%
Net Debt
$2.49B
Current Ratio
0.62
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data