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SFST

Southern First BancsharesD
Nasdaq / Banks
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The bullish case is that April 21, 2026 results were a genuine step-up rather than a one-quarter spike: margin expanded, retail deposits accelerated, credit stayed controlled, and the April equity raise gives capacity to keep growing.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +3.1.
What can break
Credit quality could worsen from current low-loss levels, especially after rapid balance-sheet growth
Momentum
57
Value
46
Sentiment
54
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $57.50 · Bull $63.00 · Bear $48.00Analysis 2026-04-21; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-10 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-04-21 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-10

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-10. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $68.50
Why
Momentum57 · Δ7d +1.8
Value46 · Δ7d +0.8
Sentiment54 · Δ7d +3.1
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +3.1.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Credit quality could worsen from current low-loss levels, especially after rapid balance-sheet growth
  • • Low coverage and limited external estimates reduce confidence in valuation support
  • • The bearish case is that the offering creates a near-term valuation ceiling, the strongest quarter benefited partly from one large nonaccrual interest repayment, and any relapse in margin, deposit mix, or credit would make the new equity look dilutive.

Catalyst clock

2026-04-21

April 21, 2026 Q1 results reset the near-term earnings view

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
57
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+1.8
Δ21d
+7.3
Value
46
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.8
Δ21d
+0.4
Sentiment
54
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+3.1
Δ21d
+0.3
Why this grade

Composite grade D. Momentum 57.1 / Value 46.0 / Sentiment 53.9

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-04-21. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$63.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-21 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$57.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-21 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$48.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-21 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$609.51M
Beta
0.77
Shares Out
9.47M
P/E (TTM)
16.4
P/S (TTM)
3.89
P/FCF (TTM)
14.37
Rev YoY
+10.8%
EPS YoY
+48.5%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
+21.6%
Net Debt
$258.79M
Current Ratio
0.10
As of 2026-09-10 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data